透過足夠分化的資料以及不同時點的資料取樣，本文揭露了金融海嘯期間台灣電子零組件出口貿易崩潰的細緻過程。有別於僅僅斷定本次貿易崩潰為Intensive margins主導或Extensive margins主導，不同時點的取樣呈現了截然不同的結果。本文透過如此巨大的轉變發現，電子零組件出口貿易量的縮減隨著金融海嘯的發生而開始，在貿易崩潰情況隨時間的拉長而嚴重後，部分商品亦在2009年第一季或第二季以退出市場作結。

在2009年至2010年的貿易解構當中，本文發現在2008年即存在的商品主導了貿易復甦，此與過去學者們所宣稱之「當貿易崩潰由Intensive margins主導，在景氣改善時，將復甦地相對於Extensive margins主導的貿易崩潰來得快速」的說法亦不相違背。據此，本文認為在國外景氣復甦後，將有助於國內經濟成長之復甦。

研究一個較易受信用限制的產業，電子零組件出口貿易在金融海嘯期間，其商品價格與數量呈反向變動的關係是顯著且相當大的；同時，在商品交易數量為減少的情況下，價格上升的證據是明顯的。本文提供了一個供給面在金融海嘯後的貿易崩潰期間亦具有一定市場力的證據，一個合理的解釋為，在所有廠商受信用限制後，有能力供應較大數量的商品或較有生產力的廠商，將因其有能力供應絕大部分的數量或較高品質的商品而更具議價能力。

This paper reveals a meticulous process of the trade collapse during the financial crisis of the exports of electronic parts and components in Taiwan by using well-differentiated data and the sampling of different time interval. We show the samplings of different time interval dominate the result of intensive or extensive margins which is mattered the most. The evidence suggests that the financial crisis accompanied trade collapse with the reduction of the volume, and some of the items exited in the first or second quarter of 2009.

We discover that the items already existed in 2008 dominate the recovery of trade from 2009 to 2010, and this doesn’t violate the declaration by the former that “If the intensive rather than extensive margin mattered the most, trade will bounce back relatively quickly once conditions improve”. In view of the above, we believe that the conditions improved abroad would boost Taiwan’s economy.

In our consideration of investigating a sector which is likely to be credit-constrained, the price goes up obviously on average. We provide some evidence that supply sides have a little market power during the financial crisis. A reasonable explanation is that firms which have the ability to supply most of the demand would have the power in charging a higher price.

一、 研究動機................................................................................................................1
二、 文獻回顧................................................................................................................5
三、 研究方法................................................................................................................7
3.1 數據資料.........................................................................................................7
3.2 主解構法.......................................................................................................10
3.3 取樣範圍.......................................................................................................12
四、 實證研究..............................................................................................................14
4.1 出口貿易情況...............................................................................................14
4.2 主要解構內容...............................................................................................15
4.2.1 分別加總2008年2009年第一、二季資料進行解構......................15
4.2.2 分別加總2008年2009年第二、三季資料進行解構......................18
4.2.3 金融海嘯時期，值得注意的新商品進入效果..................................22
4.2.4 按國家所得分類進行解構..................................................................22
4.2.5 迴歸分析..............................................................................................26
4.2.6 貿易情況於2009年至2010年間復甦之探討..................................29
4.2.7 「非主力商品」可能流向..................................................................31
4.3 次要解構內容...............................................................................................32
4.3.1 次解構法..............................................................................................32
4.3.2 次解構法結果......................................................................................33
五、 結論與建議..........................................................................................................38
5.1 結論...............................................................................................................38
5.2 建議...............................................................................................................39
六、 參考文獻..............................................................................................................41
附錄一、資料概述及資料處理方式..........................................................................43
附錄二、HS2007年「海關稅則修正」內容............................................................44
附錄三、針對世界銀行國家分類表以外地區之分類說明......................................46

西文部分 （依作者姓氏字母排列）
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Bems, Rudolfs, Robert C Johnson and Kei-Mu Yi. 2010. “Demand Spillovers and the Collapse of Trade in the Global Recession.” IMF Economic Review 58, 295–326
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Besedeš, Tibor, Thomas J. Prusa, 2006. “Ins, Outs, and the Duration of Trade.” Canadian Journal of Economics 39, 266-295
Chor, Davin, Kalina Manova. 2010 “Off the Cliff and Back? Credit Conditions and International Trade during the Global Financial Crisis.” NBER Working Paper No. 16174.
Eaton, Jonathan, Samuel Kortum, Brent Neiman and John Romalis. 2011. “Trade and the Global Recession.” NBER Working Paper No. 16666.
Haddad, Mona, Ann Harrison, Catherine Hausman. 2010. “Decomposing the Great Trade Collapse: Products, Prices, and Quantities in the 2008-2009 Crisis” NBER Working Paper No. 16253.
Levchenko, Andrei A., Logan T. Lewis and Linda L. Tesar. 2010. “The Collapse of International Trade during the 2008-2009 Crisis: In Search of the Smoking Gun.” NBER Working Paper No. 16006.
Manova, Kalina., 2008. “Credit Constraints, Heterogeneous Firms, and International Trade.” NBER Working Paper No. 14531.
Schott, Peter K., 2009. “US Trade Margins During the 2008 Crisis.” in The Great Trade Collapse: Causes, Consequences and Prospects, ed. Richard Baldwin VoxEU.org Ebook, 127-142.
中文部分 （依出版年代排列）
包佈訓、劉芳祝、范姜群青報告。《HS2007年「海關進口稅則修正」簡報》。財政部關政司，2008。