國立清華大學計量財務金融系碩士學位論文
題目：台北地區不動產價格指數及時間、地點特徵對房價影響之研究
學生：葉莉琪
指導教授： 林哲群
摘要
本研究以樣本配對方法結合特徵價格法，找出各期的價格指數，以及估計房屋特徵對房屋價格之影響，並加入交易時間及交易地點之交互作用，代表區位發展的因素，衡量影響區域發展之事件對房價造成的影響。房地產價格關係著購屋者重大的財產權益，我國內政部的不動產實價登錄系統於民國101年八月上線，改變了在此之前有購屋意願的民眾與房屋仲介之間對於房屋價格資訊的不對稱性。在十月該系統開放線上查詢的當天，系統便因大量的使用者查詢流量太大而超過負荷，足以見得民眾對透明公開的房價資訊，合理評估房價的方法有迫切需求。目前主流的住宅房屋價格指數估計方法，是重複交易法及特徵價格法，兩者都是在控制房屋特徵的情況下，估計房價指數，但兩者皆有其限制。樣本配對同時可以解決特徵價格法變數缺失偏誤的問題，以及重複交易法抽樣不隨機和流失樣本數的問題。本研究採取樣本配對法並在迴歸分析中加入里的虛擬變數、里和時間交叉項之虛擬變數以衡量足以改變區域發展機會之事件對房價的影響，此類事件本研究選定都市更新及捷運開通兩種。發現都市更新及捷運開通皆對房價有正向之影響，但其程度須賴都更型態及捷運周邊交通狀況而定。
關鍵字：ATE、配對樣本法、特徵價格法、房價指數

Abstract
The effect of time, location, and hedonic on housing price of Taipei city
Li-Chi Yeh, Advisor: Professor Che-Chun Lin
National Tsing Hua University, Hsin-Chu City, Taiwan
We combine matching approach and Hedonic approach to find price index for each period and estimate the effect of characteristic on housing price. To estimate the effect of regional development on housing price, we also add the factor of interaction between transaction time and location, which represent the regional development. Real estate prices have a significant impact on property rights homebuyers. Since Taiwan’s government urged the Housing Registration System online in August 2012, the asymmetry of information between homebuyers and housing agency has disappeared. The day Housing Registration System online open to the public, the system was overwhelmed because of huge number of visitors. It is obvious that there is an urgent demand of methods to estimate reasonable housing prices. The most commonly used method for housing price estimation is Repeat Sales Method and Hedonic Method, both measure the expected price of house after controlling for features of house while both of them have limitation. Matching approach can solve the problem of biased estimation caused by missing variable of Hedonic method and the problem of losing data and nonrandom sample of Repeat Sales method. We use the villages where sample is located and cross term of villages and the time when data are sold to measure the effect of events which could promote regional development, such events we chose urban renewal and the opening of the MRT in our research. We find that both urban renewal and the opening of the MRT makes positive effect on house price, but the degree of influence depend on the type of urban renewal and the surrounding traffic of MRT location.
Keywords: ATE, matching , hedonic, housing price index.

目錄
一、緒論 1
(一)研究動機 1
(二)研究目的 2
二、文獻回顧 4
(一)特徵價格法 4
(二)重複交易法 4
(三)樣本配對 5
三、研究方法 6
(一)特徵價格法 6
(二)重複交易法 6
(三)樣本配對 7
(四)事件分析 9
(五)平均絕對誤差百分比與命中率 10
四、變數之基本描述統計及迴歸結果分析 11
(一)特徵變數描述統計 11
(二)迴歸結果分析 13
(三)都市更新長期而言對房價之影響 14
(四)捷運通車之事件效應 17
五、結論與建議 22
(一)結論 22
(二)分析結果的問題及後續研究方向建議 23
參考文獻 i

參考文獻
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