能源供應和糧食及國家安全問題已經成為一個關鍵的問題。過度使用化石燃料的負面影響日益帶來環保意識，因此尋找替代能源，以滿足持續增長的能源需求也越來越重要。

此外，價格波動破壞化石燃料的能源安全問題和使得進口成本持續增加。為了應對這些趨勢，世界各地的政府正在推動具有再生性和碳中性特質的生物燃料─即衍生自澱粉和糖為基礎之植物的乙醇及衍生自能源作物和動物脂肪的生物柴油。

本研究之研究目的主要探討棕櫚油和原油價格之間的關聯性是否會影響馬來西亞國內能源政策的執行和實施是否會影響。引用馬來西亞國際棕櫚油CIF Rotterdam價格及Tapis國際原油馬來西亞FOB價格，研究期間為 2000年4月1日至2015年3月31日。

本研究使用Johansen 共整合檢定和單根檢定，實證結果發現只有樣本四的油價格和原油價格之間存在共整合關係。除此之外，馬來西亞國內能源政策的執行與頒布，相對於京都議定書(國際政策)的強制執行，加強了棕櫚油價格與原油價格之間的關係。因此，本文建議馬來西亞應將棕櫚油需求市場的生質能源與食品加工部門做明顯的劃分，並擬定政策作為維護措施，以避免原油價格上漲而影響糧食作物價格。

Energy supply and energy security issues have become a crucial problem. With the negative effects of excessive use of fossil fuels brought growing environmental awareness, finding alternative energy as their substitutions to fulfill increasing energy demand is getting important.

Compounding these issues, volatile price for fossil fuels are undermining energy security and eroding balances of payments by escalating the cost of energy imports. As part of their response to these convergent trends, many governments across the world are promoting biofuels with characteristic of Carbon Neutral and renewable – namely ethanol derived from plant-based starches and sugars, and biodiesel derived from oil crops and animal fats.

The purpose of this study was to investigate whether the execution and implementation of Malaysia's domestic energy policies will affect the relationship between palm oil and crude oil prices. International Malaysia Crude Palm Oil prices with the term of CIF Rotterdam and Malaysia Tapis Crude Oil prices with the term of FOB Malaysia were used as data, data observation start from date April 1, 2000 to March 31, 2015.

Johansen Co-integration analysis and Unit Roots Test were adopted in this study, the empirical results show that only Sample Four exist a co-integration between the crude oil and palm oil prices. Empirical results show that Malaysia promulgation and implementation of the new energy policy and the enforcement of "Kyoto Protocol", strengthen the relationship between the prices of palm oil and crude oil prices. Therefore, this study recommend that the Malaysian government should be clearly divided the market demand for palm oil to biomass energy and food processing, and the implementation of policy as a safeguard measure to cope with rising crude oil prices affect the price of food crops.

ABSTRACT………………………………………………………………………….ⅲ
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT…………………………………………………………...ⅴ
LIST OF TABLES……………………………………………………………………ⅷ
LIST OF FIGURES…………………………………………………………………..ⅸ
CHAPTER ONE INTRODUCTION………………………………………………….1
1.1 Research Background………………………………………………………..1
1.1.1 The Factors Affecting Crude Oil Price Changes……………………2
1.1.2 The Factors Affecting Palm Oil Price Changes……………………..3
1.2 Research Motivation and Objective…………………………………………4
1.3 Structure of the Dissertation…………………………………………………5
CHAPTER TWO LITERATURE REVIEW………………………………………….7
2.1 Overview of economic growth……………………………………………….7
2.1.1 An overview of trends in crude oil prices…………………………….7
2.1.2 An overview of the rise of bioenergy industry………………………10
2.1.3 An overview of trends in palm oil price……………………………..11
2.2 The importance of palm oil in Malaysia……………………………………15
2.2.1 Palm oil industry is the key economic growth driver in Malaysia…..15
2.2.2 Malaysian palm industry development plan…………………………15
2.2.3 Relationship between palm oil and crude oil prices…………………17
2.3 Relationship between biofuel, energy crops and crude oil………………….18
2.3.1 Biofuel and energy crops……...……………………………………..19
2.3.2 Biofuel and Crude Oil……...…...……………………………….…..21
2.4 Theory and Hypotheses……………………………………………………..22
2.4.1 The casual relationship between Crude Oil and Energy Crops………...22
2.4.2 Price information transfer efficiency…………………………………...24
2.5 Chapter Summary…………………………………………………………...30
CHAPTER THREE RESEARCH METHODOLOGY………………………………32
3.1 Unit root test………………………………………………………………...34
3.2 Co-integration Test for Times Series……………………………………….35
3.3 Granger causality…………………………………………………………...39
CHAPTER FOUR EMPIRICAL RESULTS………………………………………...43
4.1 Variable Description………………………………………………………..43
4.2 Sample Description…………………………………………………………44
4.3 Econometric Analysis………………………………………………………45
4.3.1 Augmented Dickey-Fuller Unit Root tests (ADF)…………………..46
4.3.2 Selection of Optimal Lag Length……………………………………47
4.3.3 Co-integration Test…………………………………………………..49
4.3.4 Granger Causality Test………………………………………………52
4.4 Chapter Summary……………………………………………………….......54
CHAPTER FIVE CONCLUSIONS AND SUGGESTS……………………………..56
5.1 Conclusion…………………………………………………………………..56
5.2 Suggestion…………………………………………………………………..57
5.3 Follow-up Research Proposals……………………………………………...58
REFERENCES……………………………………………………………………….59

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