服務導向架構越來越受歡迎，因為它具有以下優點: 分散式環境、服務的可重複利用性、定義良好的介面、標準化的溝通協定。在評估一個系統的品質，可靠度是一個重要的依據、所以已經有許多預測服務導向架構可靠度的論文存在。但這些論文都忽略了服務之間的依靠性，所以我們把服務間錯誤傳遞的性質納入考慮。因為這些傳遞的錯誤可能會被其他傳遞路徑上的服務所修正或者是一路傳遞系統的介面並造成系統的錯誤。在篇論文中，我們提出了一個考慮到錯誤傳遞的服務導向架構可靠度預測方法並且解除了系統運行中的跳出錯誤的限制。我們採用三個實際的服務導向系統來做實驗，並且採用了兩個敏感度分析的方法來找出那些較重要的服務。第一個是一次只考慮一個因素的方法，做法是變動其中一個服務的參數(如:服務的錯誤機率、服務兼傳遞的機率)而其他的皆不變，藉此找出最敏感的服務。第二個是實驗設計方法，其藉由提升或降低每個服務的參數來量化每一個服務所會造成的影響。總結就是我們的方法可以幫助去評估考慮錯誤傳遞的服務導向系統的可靠度並找出系統中敏感的服務。

Service oriented architecture (SOA) has drawn more attention due to its distributed environment while it has additional advantages such as reusability of services, well-defined public interfaces, and standardized communication protocols. Reliability is a critical attribute used to evaluate the quality of system. Numerous reliability prediction models for service oriented system have been proposed. However, they neglect the dependency between services in reliability evaluation. Therefore, we take error propagation into account. The propagated error could be masked or propagate up to the system interface, thereby leading to system failure. In this paper, we propose a reliability prediction model which consider error propagation for service oriented systems and relaxes the condition of stopping-failure. Our experiments are conducted on three real-world case studies. Two sensitivity analysis techniques are adopted to determine these critical services. The first one is a one-factor-at-a-time approach, which changes the attributes such as failure probability, transition probability of one of the services in the system and others are fixed. The second one is design of experiments, which quantifies the effects of services in the system by increasing or decreasing the parameters such as failure probability of each service. In summary, our approach could help to evaluate the reliability of service oriented systems that consider error propagation and also identify sensitive services.

Abstract in Chinese I
Abstract II
Acknowledgement III
Contents IV
List of Tables VI
List of Figures VII
Notation IX
Chapter 1 Introduction 1
Chapter 2 Service Computing 4
2.1 Related works 4
2.2 Motivation 6
Chapter 3 Proposed Reliability Prediction Model 10
3.1 Framework of our model 10
3.2 Introduce error propagation into service oriented system 13
3.3 Proposed reliability prediction framework 14
3.3.1 Proposed failure equation 15
3.3.2 Sequence structure 17
3.3.3 Branch structure 17
3.3.4 Loop structure 18
3.3.5 Parallel structure 20
Chapter 4 Sensitivity Analysis 21
4.1 One-factor-a-time approach 21
4.1.1 Sensitivity analysis of service failure probability 21
4.1.2 Sensitivity analysis of error propagation probability 23
4.1.3 Find the most sensitive case 25
4.2 Design of experiments 26
Chapter 5 Experiments and Discussion 28
5.1 Numerical examples 28
5.2 Reliability modeling 34
5.3 Sensitivity analysis - One-factor-a-time approach 35
5.4 Sensitivity analysis - Design of experiments 47
5.5 Threats to validity 50
Chapter 6 Conclusions 52
References 53

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