太陽能電池之 「多晶矽鑄造融化段」 製程可分為三階段。此三階段結束時,爐內未融化之矽料需達到3個轉換製程之理想高度。在這三階段中,作業人員將會以自身經驗評斷探測時間點並使用石英棒探測矽料高度多次,並記錄時間與高度。作業人員在每一階段需做3至5次的探測,也就是總共需做9至15次探測已得到最接近目標,所以探測用石英棒成本很高。本研究動機欲減少探測次數以減少石英棒使用成本。也就是如何用較少的探測次數達到3個目標轉換製程之理想高度。

本研究首先對已知資料中的時間與高度求出迴歸關係式,傳統迴歸方法求出模型之判定係數很高。但事實上,根據此迴歸關係式預測出轉換製程時間下高度預測值離真實目標高度很遠。所以原始時間與高度的資料需做適當的轉換。本研究對原始資料做 「明智」的轉換,並由轉換後的資料建立預測模型找出數據內隱藏的模式。本研究以多支晶錠為樣本進行分析。結果顯示,每支晶錠需探測次數降低為4至5次且達到最終階段目標高度預測值與傳統預測方法之預測高度相比改進了60%。此研究提供線上作業人員一套有邏輯的探測方法,將可有效減少探測次數、降低石英棒成本與減少作業人員負擔。

The multicrystalline silicon melting process of solar cell can be divided into 3 parts, denote as S1, S2, S3. The unmelted silicon height inside the crucible of each process has to be h1, h2, h3. During the melting process, operator would determine the time to dip a quartz rod to measure the unmelted silicon height depend on his or her own experiences and record time and height. During each process, operator has to dip more than 3 times, that’s totally 9 times more to get the target height, quartz rod can only use no more than 20 times so the cost of quartz rods are high. The motivation of our research is to decrease frequency of dipping to reduce cost of quartz rods. In others words, our target is to get h1, h2, h3 by fewer dipping.

We firstly find the linear regression relationship between height and time from known data. The coefficient of determination of regression model is high. But in fact, if the regression model is used to estimate the target height, the estimated height will be far-off target from real height h1, h2 , h3. So the original dipping data of time and height have to be moderately transformed. In our research, we made a clever transformation and proposed a prediction model to find out the hidden part of the transformed data. The result shows dipping
frequency reduce to 4 to 5 times and predicted height error compared to traditional linear regression have improved 60% on the final process S3. Our research provides on-line operators a logical dipping method and can effectively decrease dipping
frequency,reduce cost of quartz rod and lower operator’s workloads.

摘要 i
英文摘要 ii
致謝 iii
目錄 iv
表目錄 vi
圖目錄 vii
第 1 章 緒論
1.1 研究背景
1.2 多晶矽太陽能晶片製程
1.3 石英棒探測
1.4 研究動機與目的
1.5 符號定義
1.6 問題描述
第 2 章 文獻回顧
2.1 石英棒探測多晶錠相關文獻
2.2 函數型態與非函數型態之迴歸分析
2.2.1 函數型態與非函數型態之迴歸模型
2.2.2 迴歸模型參數估計
2.2.3 迴歸模型適合度檢定
第 3 章 本研究所提出之“矽晶錠探測時間” 方法
3.1 未融矽料高度與時間的關係
3.2 不同晶錠之時間轉換
3.3 未融矽料高度之函數迴歸模型
3.4 實用之演算法
第 4 章 績效分析與比較
第 5 章 結論與未來研究
5.1 未來研究
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