隨著中國經濟近年來快速起飛，身處鄰近的臺灣與其往來越來越密切。中國匯率制度在近三十年間由釘住美元匯率制度轉為到管理式浮動匯率政策後，制度上的改變對於兩岸進出口貿易會造成什麼影響？
本研究先利用引力模型來比較兩國對外貿易情形。以臺灣和中國各自設為引力模型的i國分別對其餘35國設為j國的貿易行為作估計，另外也納入CFE效果考慮。發現匯率波動對於貿易影響為負向符合理論預期。
爾後進一步採VAR模型單就兩岸進出口貿易，以21類商品來作分析，並分時期探討，以了解匯率對於兩岸貿易的關係。發現匯率變動對於出口影響大部分符合理論預期，也有部分商品出現J曲線；進口受匯率影響則有較長的時間滯後性。

Along with the rapid growth of the Chinese economy in recent years, the cross- strait relationship and trade have strengthened. During the recent 30 years, China’s exchange rate system has changed from the U.S dollar pegged rate system to the managed floating rate system. What will this phenomenon affect the bilateral trade?
This study first examines the impact of exchange rate and trade flows between Taiwan and China with their main trading partner by undertaking the gravity model. Also country fixed effect is taking into account. Our findings indicate that the exchange rate volatility has the negative effect on the bilateral trade.
Then adopting VAR model to analyze the bilateral trade, and the products are categorized into 21 types according to the HS code. Exchange rate affects the export side almost on the positive way which conforms to the theory. Additionally, there are some products have J curve. On the other hand, the import side is facing longer lag as a result of exchange rate.

摘 要 I
ABSTRACT II
誌謝 III
表目錄 V
圖目錄 VI
第一章 緒論 1
第二章 文獻回顧 3
第三章 兩岸外匯制度變遷與兩岸貿易 7
第一節 臺灣外匯制度變遷 7
第二節 中國外匯制度變遷 8
第三節 兩岸貿易歷史沿革 10
第四章 臺灣與中國匯率與貿易 13
第一節 臺灣與中國匯率關係 13
第二節 臺灣與中國貿易關係 15
第五章 實證模型與計量方法 28
第一節 Gravity Model 介紹 28
第二節 VAR模型介紹 30
第三節 數據選取與資料處理方法 32
第四節 實證結果與分析 34
一、引力模型 34
二、VAR模型 38
第六章 結論 72
參考文獻 75
附錄 78
A、 進出口21項分類 78
A.1出口 78
A.2進口 80
B、 本研究樣本選取國家： 82
C、 VAR模型實證結果 83
C.1 對中國貿易商品對匯率變動反應顯著的種類 83
C.2、對中國出口部分 92
C.3、 對中國進口部分 100
C.4、 對中國出口部分(以2005.07中國改採「管理浮動匯率制度」作分期) 106
C.5、 對中國進口部分(以2005.07中國改採「管理浮動匯率制度」作分期) 120

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