本研究主要探討2010年四個縣市升格為直轄市（加上原為直轄市的台北市，俗稱五都升格）以及財政結構差異對台灣跨縣市人口遷徙的影響，以台灣本島19個縣市為研究範圍，同時利用總體模型和個體模型進行實證，並以Difference in Differences方法來看升格縣市在升格前、升格後的效果。

總體模型採最小平方法，涵蓋期間為2004年至2013年，探討各項因素對淨遷入的影響，個體模型則以conditional logit model分析，利用2007年及2012年國內遷徙調查的資料，探討各項因素對居住地選擇的影響。

實證結果顯示，對設籍家戶來說，升格事件確實影響其遷徙決策，但其對青壯年家戶和老年家戶的影響截然不同。另外，家戶傾向選擇財源充沛的地區居住設籍，但公共支出和福利支出卻無正向吸引力。

This paper studies the impact of the special municipality reform in 2010 and the difference in fiscal structure on inter-county/city migration in Taiwan. Including 19 jurisdictions in Taiwan, we use both macro-level and micro-level analysis. Also, we use Difference-in-Differences method to see whether the upgrade of jurisdictions to special municipalities changes moving decisions before and after the reform.

Our macro-level models use ordinary least squared（OLS）regression to investigate determinants of net in-migration rate during the period 2004 to 2013. At micro levels, we apply conditional logit model to identify the factors that affect the destination choice based on the data from Internal Migration Survey in 2007 and 2012.

Our empirical results found evidence in registered residence that the special municipality reform affected inter-jurisdiction migration decisions in Taiwan, and the effect markedly differ by the ages of the householders. Furthermore, the jurisdictions with more abundant revenue sources were more likely to be chosen as the registered residence of household. However, higher expenditure on public goods and welfare did not appear to attract or help retain residents.

第一章 研究動機 1
第二章 五都升格背景與財政結構差異 5
第一節 五都升格背景 5
第二節 直轄市與非直轄市歲入差異 7
第三節 直轄市與非直轄市歲出差異 12
第四節 小結 13
第三章 文獻回顧 14
第一節 人口遷移理論 14
第二節 實證模型與方法 16
第三節 國內外實證文獻 19
第四章 實證模型 28
第一節 總體模型 28
第二節 個體模型－Conditional Logit Model 29
第三節 Difference-in-Difference 32
第五章 資料來源及敘述統計 35
第一節 研究範圍 35
第二節 總體與個體變數及資料來源彙整 35
第三節 總體資料說明 39
第四節 個體資料說明 51
第六章 實證結果 55
第一節 總體模型 55
第二節 個體模型－Conditional Logit Model 61
第七章 結論與建議 74
第一節 結論 74
第二節 政策意涵 76
第三節 研究限制與未來研究方向 76
參考文獻 78
附錄 81

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