本論文採用Jordà et al.（2013）的實證方法，研究信用擴張與景氣循環的關係，其結果指出金融危機所造成的衰退程度會較於一般衰退期更嚴重，又若是在擴張時期擁有較快速的信用擴張將會加深其影響程度。我們選取了文獻忽略的亞太地區與較低開發程度國家的9個國家為樣本，使用最長自西元1960年至2012年之年資料，探討金融相關衰退與景氣循環波動對於衰退期時各國實質經濟成長率之影響差異性，並同時考量樣本國家在擴張時期的信用擴張情形以及加入量化模型和信用變數門檻模型進行分析。
除了得到文獻相似的結果—金融相關衰退期對於實質經濟成長率造成的負影響大於一般衰退期，且若是在擴張期時信用擴張較快速的話，亦會增加衰退期之下跌幅度，我們額外發現，是否處於金融相關衰退期為決定衰退程度的重要因素，又若是擴張期時信用比率年增量超越門檻值也會對爾後衰退期造成負面影響，但門檻值估計結果並不顯著。

This paper is aimed to investigate the role of credit in business cycles, with a focus on private credit overhang in the expansion. There are two major findings from Jordà et al. (2013): first, financial recessions are more serious than normal recessions in terms of the magnitude of the output decrease; and second, for both types of recession, more credit expansion during the expansion stage of business cycles tend to be followed by deeper recessions and slower recoveries. Following Jordà et al. (2013), we employ the data from the Asia-Pacific and less-development countries between 1960 and 2012 to examine the magnitude of the output decrease between financial and normal recessions and how the credit growth in the expansion stage works. We find that the financial recession causes economic output dropped more than the normal recession and a credit-intensive expansion tend to be followed by a deeper recession. Besides, from the quantitative model, we test the effect of the credit on the output in recession depends on the threshold value. The result is the drop of output in the recession is deeper at the high credit expansion, but it is not statistically significant. Eventually, we can conclude with that an important factor in determining the output falling level is whether it is financial recession or not in our study.

第一章 緒論 1
第二章 文獻回顧 4
第一節 金融體系對景氣循環的影響 4
第二節 信用與金融衰退的關係 6
第三章 資料概述與處理 8
第一節 資料概述 8
第二節 一般衰退期與金融相關衰退期 10
第三節 信用擴張 14
第四節 小結 16
第四章 實證模型 18
第一節 質性模型設定（Qualitative Model Analysis） 18
第二節 量化模型設定（Quantitative Model Analysis） 20
第五章 實證結果與分析 23
第一節 質性模型結果分析 23
第二節 量化模型結果分析 24
第六章 結論與建議 27
參考文獻 39

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