本文建構一個VAR模型，研究石油價格衝擊與美國景氣衝擊對台灣產出與物價的影響。
　　研究結果顯示當增加石油供給面衝擊時，在短期內會使台灣的產出增加並且減少躉售物價指數。另一方面，當增加石油需求面衝擊與石油預防性需求面衝擊時，在短期內會增加台灣的產出並且提高台灣的物價。而當美國景氣繁榮時，對台灣的產出與物價都有正向抬升的影響效果。
　　本文也將石油價格衝擊對總體經濟變數的衝擊反應分解為直接反應與間接反應，並分別觀察分解後的衝擊反應差異，觀察結果顯示石油價格衝擊對總體經濟變數有顯著的直接反應，但直接反應卻會被其他變數的間接反應所大幅抵銷。

　The main purpose of this paper is to investigate the effects of the oil-price and US business cycle shocks on the aggregate price and output of Taiwan by using the VAR analysis.
　The results suggest that an increase in oil supply shock leads to short-run increases in the output and decreases in the wholesale price index of Taiwan. In contrast, an increase in the aggregate demand and oil specific demand shocks lead to short-run increases in the output as well as wholesale price index of Taiwan. The US business cycle shock also has positive effects on both output and the wholesale price index.
　If the responses of macroeconomic variables to oil shocks are decomposed into direct and indirect responses, the results suggest that oil shocks have significant direct effects on macroeconomic variables, but those effects are largely offset by indirect effects.

1緒論 01
2基本模型 05
2.1模型設定 05
2.2資料敘述 07
2.3實證結果 11
2.3.1衝擊反應與變異數分解 11
2.3.2衝擊反應分解 15
2.3.3歷史分解 23
3其他模型 26
3.1多國模型 26
3.2區塊外生模型 32
4結論 38
5參考文獻 40

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