混合再生能源系統 (Hybrid Renewable Energy System, HRES) 為一個結合了多種能源的供電系統，其中包含太陽能發電、風力發電與備用電能，當再生能源發電量不足時，以傳統柴油發電作為小部分的備用電能。太陽能發電及風力發電為最具發展潛力的再生能源，亦兼顧環保、生態之潔淨發電方式而越來越受歡迎。然而真實環境下，受日昇日落、颳風下雨等自然現象影響，此不確定性將造成再生能源無法配合用電需求穩定供應電力，這使得HRES的使用產生供電量不穩定的疑慮。本論文目的為針對用電需求與再生能源供給皆為不確定的情況下，提出一個風險管理的決策架構，並在此架構下決定最佳混合式再生能源系統設計。本研究提出之模型不僅考慮HRES中可再生能源發電器之設備安裝且同時考慮各發電站之電力儲存與發電、傳輸和分配量之間關係，並應用一套有效的最佳化演算法以達成風險控制並同時滿足各區域電力需求的目標。論文最後有效整合即時電力監控、資料判讀、與最佳化的數學模型於一決策支援系統，以視覺化的輸出，提供系統化的能源管理最佳決策。

Hybrid renewable energy system (HRES), which combines several renewable power, including photovoltaics (PV) and wind power, and a small portion of power generated by conventional power generators as backups when the renewable power is insufficient, is gaining more popularity over the decades because it has minimal impact on environment and health. However, due to the uncertain amount of power generated by the HRES, the HRES-based power supply can be very unstable. In this paper, we propose a stochastic programming model and apply an analysis methodology to ensure the robust power supply and reduce the power shortage risk for HRES when the distribution of the amount of renewable power is ambiguous. In order to validate the performance of our methodology, we create some realistic-size scenarios to test the model and the proposed analysis methodology. Results show that the instances can be efficiently solved. Finally, we create a decision support system (DSS) that integrate the proposed model and the analysis methodology is developed as an efficient decision tool to enable effective and efficient energy management of HRES. The visualized outputs of DSS allow decision makers to gain better understanding about the management of HRES, facilitating the decision making process.

摘要 i
ABSTRACT ii
致謝 iii
目錄 iv
圖目錄 vi
表目錄 vii
一、 緒論 1
1.1 研究背景與動機 1
1.2 研究目的 3
1.3 論文架構 4
二、 文獻探討 7
2.1 混合再生能源系統 7
2.2 系統管理 9
2.3 風險管理 10
三、 研究方法 12
3.1 隨機規劃模型 12
3.2 SNM-Q演算法 17
3.2.1 Nelder–Mead simplex method 17
3.2.2 Stochastic Nelder-Mead simplex method for Quantile 18
四、 數值實驗 21
五、 決策支援系統 23
5.1 系統介紹 25
5.1.1 參數設定與輸出資料 25
5.1.2 敏感度分析 27
5.1.3 電力傳輸與補足 27
5.2 簡易操作說明 28
5.2.1 使用者輸入與選擇部分 28
5.2.2 系統輸出部分 31
六、 結論與未來規劃 34
6.1 結論 34
6.2 未來研究 35
參考文獻 36

梁佩芳，何無忌，李東璟，陳翔雄，陳俊宇，2011，「我國智慧電網之推動」，中國鑛冶工程學會會刊，民國101年3月。
Ashok, S. 2007. “Optimised model for community-based hybrid energy system”, Renewable Energy, Vol.32, No.7, pp.1155-1164.
Al-Ashwal, A.M., I.S. Moghram. 1997. “Proportion Assessment of Combined PV-Wind Generating Systems”, Renewable Energy, Vol.10, No.1, pp.43-51.
Awerbuch, S., 2006. “Portfolio-based electricity generation planning: policy implications for renewables and energy security”, Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Vol.11, No.3, pp. 693-710.
Bagul, A.D., Z.M. Salameh, B. Borowy. 1996. “Sizing of stand-alone hybrid wind-photovoltaic system using a three-event probability density approximation”, Solar Energy, Vol.56, No.4, pp. 323-335.
Batur, D., F. Choobineh. 2010. “A quantile-based approach to system selection”, European Journal of Operational Research, Vol.202, No.3, pp.764-772.
Byun, J., I. Hong, B. Kang, S. Park. 2010. “A Smart Energy Distribution and Management System for Renewable Energy Distribution and Context-Aware Services Based on User Patterns and Load Forecasting”, IEEE Transactions on Consumer Electronics, Vol.57, No. 2, pp.436-444.
Chang, K.H. 2012. “Stochastic nelder-mead simplex method- a new globally convergent direct search method for simulation optimization”, European Journal of Operational Research, Vol.220, No.3, pp.684-694.
Chang, K.H. 2014. “A decision support system for planning and coordination of hybrid renewable energy systems”, Decision Support Systems.
De, A.R., L. Musgrove. 1988. “The optimization of hybrid energy conversion system using the dynamic programming model-rapsody”, International Journal of Energy Research, Vol.12, No.3, pp.447-457.
Deshmukh, M.K., S.S. Deshmukh. 2008. “Modeling of Hybrid Renewable Energy Systems”, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Vol.12, No.1, pp.235-249.
Dimeas, A.L., N.D. Hatziargyriou. 2005. “Operation of a Multiagent System for Microgrid Control”, IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, Vol.20, No.3, pp.1447-1455.
Ekren, O., B.Y. Ekren. 2010. “Size Optimization of a PV/Wind Hybrid Energy Conversion System with Battery Storage using Simulated Annealing”, Applied Energy, Vol.87, pp.592-598.
Elhadidy, M.A., S.M. Shaahid. 1999. “Optimal sizing of battery storage for hybrid (wind+diesel) power systems”, Renewable Energy, Vol.18, No.1, pp.77-86.
Ferrer-Martí, L., B. Domenech, A. García-Villoria, R. Pastor. 2013. “A MILP model to design hybrid wind-photovoltaic isolated rural electrification projects in developing countries”, European Journal of Operational Research, Vol.226, pp. 293-300.
Georgopoulou, E., D. Lalas, L. Papagiannakis. 1997. “A multicriteria decision aid approach for energy planning problems: The case of renewable energy option”, European Journal of Operational Research, Vol.103, No.1, pp.38-54.
Giraud, F., Z.M. Salameh. 2001. “Steady-state performance of a grid-connected rooftop hybrid wind-photovoltaic power system with battery storage”, IEEE Transactions on Power Energy Conversion, Vol.16, No.1, pp.1-7.
Hennet, J.C., M.T. Samarakou. 1986. “Optimization of a Combined Wind and Solar Power Plant”, Energy Research, Vol.10, No.2, pp.181-188.
Hu, Z., J. Cao, L.J. Hong, 2012. “Robust simulation of global warming policies using the DICE model”, Management Science, Vol.58, No12. pp.2190-2206.
Karaki, S.H., R.B. Chedid, R. Ramadan. 1999. “Probabilistic performance assessment of autonomous solar-wind energy conversion systems”, IEEE Transactions on Energy Conversion, Vol.14, No.3, pp.766-772.
Kellogg, W.D., M.H. Nehrir, G. Venkataramanan, V. Gerez. 1998. “Generation unit sizing and cost analysis for stand-alone wind photovoltaic and hybrid wind/pv systems”, IEEE Transactions on Energy Conversion, Vol.13, No.1, pp.70-75.
Kolhe, M., K. Agbossou, J. Hamelin, T.K. Bose. 2003. “Analytical Model for Predicting the Performance of Photovoltaic Array Coupled with a Wind Turbine in a Stand-Alone Renewable Energy System Based on Hydrogen”, Renewable Energy, Vol.28, No.5, pp.727-742.
Linares, P. 2002. “Multiple criteria decision making and risk analysis as risk management tools for power systems planning”, IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, Vol.17, No.3, pp.895-900.
Lu, D., B. François. 2009. “Strategic Framework of an Energy Management of a Microgrid with a Photovoltaic-Based Active Generator”, IEEE Advanced Electromechanical Motion Systems & Electric Drives Joint Symposium, Lille, France, pp.1-6.
Nehrir, M.H., B.J. LaMeres, G. Venkataramanan, V. Gerez, L.A. Alvarado. 2000. “An Approach to Evaluate the General Performance of Stand-Alone Wind/Photovoltaic Generating Systems”, IEEE Transactions on Energy Conversion, Vol.15, No.4, pp.433-439.
Nelson, D.B., M.H. Nehrir, C. Wang. 2005. “Unit Sizing and Cost Analysis of Stand-Alone Hybrid Wind/PV/Fuel Cell Power Generation Systems”, Renewable Energy, Vol.31, No.10, pp.1641-1656.
Nelder, J.A., Mead, R., 1965. “A simplex method for function minimization”, The Computer Journal, Vol.7, pp.308-313.
Shaahid, S.M., M.A. Elhadidy. 2003. “Prospects of autonomous/stand-alone hybrid (photo-voltaic+diesel+battery) power systems in commercial applications in hot regions”, Renewable Energy, Vol.29, No.2, pp.165-177.
Subramanian, D., A. K. Mathur, S.J. Bedros, 2007. “Risk management in energy”, Patent Application Publication, U.S. Patent no. 2007, 0, 288, 403(A1).
Vale, Z.A., H. Morais, H. Khodr. 2010. “Intelligent Multi-Player Smart Grid Management Considering Distributed Energy Resources and Demand Response”, IEEE Power and Energy Society General Meeting, pp.1-7.
Yokoyama, R., K. Ito, Y. Yuasa. 1994. “Multiobjective optimal unit sizing of hybrid power generation systems utilizing photovoltaic and wind energy”, Journal of Solar Energy Engineering, Vol.116, No.4, pp.167-173.