近年來，眾多學者對於如何在不確定性製造環境下做決策越來越重視，而在全球代工競爭激烈環境下，工廠如何審慎評估製程風險、考慮不確定性因子造成之影響，快速給予良好的排程，以減少總完工時間，以及如何在不同決策者看法下趨避風險，給予客戶較為合理的出貨日期，使客戶信賴度提升，皆是工廠增加競爭力之關鍵因素。本研究基於過去隨機性排程問題多以數學規劃與模擬進行求解，試圖建構有效演算法機制並結合數學規劃，進行製程風險評估與趨避，藉由改善分布估計演算法，設計有效機制，並結合數學規劃中機會約束規畫，以簡化隨機變數計算上之複雜性，考量實際生產環境限制包含綁機、跳站、機台阻塞、作業人員數等限制，以求解隨機彈性流程型排程問題。實證分析顯示，本研究提出之演算法效能較分布估計演算法、遺傳為佳，而藉由機會約束規劃對風險做規避，會使得方法在目標為極小化總完工時間標準差下差異不顯著。

目錄 i
表目錄 ii
圖目錄 iii
第一章 緒論 1
1.1 研究背景與動機 1
1.2 研究目的 2
1.3 論文結構 2
第二章 理論基礎 3
2.1 彈性流程型排程問題 3
2.2 隨機排程 3
2.3 分布估計演算法 4
2.4 機會約束規劃應用 5
第三章 隨機彈性流程型排程之模型建構 7
3.1 問題描述 7
3.2 HEDA建置步驟 10
第四章 實例驗證與分析 21
4.1 實證資料收集與整理 21
4.2 HEDA驗證 22
第五章 結論與未來研究 30
5.1 研究貢獻和限制 30
5.2 未來研究方向 30
參考文獻 31

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