根據衛生署資料顯示，過去30年，國人十大死因的榜首為癌症或惡性腫瘤；尤為重要的，到了2014年，肺癌已經攀升為十大癌症死因之首。儘管如此，因為設備與技術關係，有許多人，在發現肺癌時，卻已經是癌症末期，尤其是在2004年以前。然而，美國癌症協會指出，肺癌第一期的存活率是第四期的15倍。因此，如果能夠發展一套系統，及早協助人們評估自己是否為有罹患肺癌高風險的族群，將有助於提升存活率。有鑒於此，本論文嘗試建構一套肺癌罹患風險評估專家系統，希望藉此系統，讓受測者，以非常簡易、快速的方式，了解自己罹患肺癌的風險高低，進一步尋求治療或予以預防。目前此系統所考慮的危險因子，包括：家族史、吸菸、二手菸、空氣汙染、致癌物、和工作環境；當受測者，在回答此系統所設定的所有問題之後，此系統會產生一個總風險評估值，並告知受測者其所屬風險類別；此研究發現，若要將此系統產品化，仍需要再經過專家群的正確性測試，以及更多使用者的易用度測試。

According to the released information from Republic of China’s Ministry of Health and Welfare, in the last 30 years, the number one death cause has been cancer. Most importantly, in 2014, lung cancer has become the most deadly cancer among the top ten cancers. Nevertheless, due to lack of equipment and technology advancement, many people have discovered their lung cancer tumors during their last stages, especially before 2004. However, American Cancer Society has pointed out that the five-year survival rate of the first stage of lung cancer is 15 times that of fourth stage. Therefore, if a system, which helps its users determine whether they are high risk groups who may develop lung cancer, can be developed, then, people’s survival rates will be increased. Being aware of this, this study tries to develop a lung cancer risk evaluation expert system. Through this system, we hope to let its users quickly and easily understand their risks of obtaining cancer, so, in their next steps, they can seek treatments or prevention. Currently, the risk factors this system considers are family history, smoking, secondhand smoke, air pollution, chemical carcinogens, and working environment. After a user finishes all of the questions provided by the system, this system will generate a total risk value and informs its user his or her risk category. This research finds, experts’ correctness testing and more users’ user-friendliness testing are needed for this system to become a product.

摘要 2
Abstract 3
獻 5
致謝 6
壹、緒論 9
貳、專家系統文獻回顧 12
參、本肺癌風險評估專家系統 16
3-1 簡介 16
3-2 系統架構 16
3-3 風險數值計算 22
肆、知識架構樹 25
伍、系統測試 32
陸、結果與討論 41
6-1 測試結果與討論 41
6-2 內容 42
6-3 易用度 43
6-4 準確性 45
6-5 造成肺癌最常見原因 45
柒、結論 47
捌、參考文獻 49

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