本研究透過混沌理論的觀點探討1976年至2010年間全球印表機技術變遷之特質。混沌理論起源於1960年代對於氣象系統的觀察與研究，並提供有別於以往古典力學的非線性思考。本研究兼具量化與質化研究之特質，以準自然研究之精神探討印表機的技術變遷。透過兩種量化分析工具：局部赫斯特指數與局部李亞普諾夫指數，分別闡述印表機技術變遷具有長期記憶與局部混沌，並以個案描述之方式闡述量化分析的結果。本研究發現印表機在1988年9月至1992年10月經歷噴墨印表機的大量商品化，引發第一次混沌；2008年4月至2009年11月經歷個人區域網路的整合，引發第二次混沌。

This paper herein will exam the chaotic pattern of the technological change of printers during the period from 1976 to 2010. Chaos theory was derived from the observations and experiments of meteorology in the 1960s, providing the new concept and thinking logic of nonlinearity differing from the ones of linearity in the past. This paper is characterized by both quantitative and qualitative methodologies, and we employ the quasi-natural study to investigate the pattern of change. We will at first use two quantifiers, local Hurst exponent (LHE) and local Lyapunov exponent (LLE), to state that the printer industry is performed by long-term memory and local chaos respectively. Afterwards, we will illustrate the result of the previous stage via the case study. We discovered that the printer industry underwent the first chaos during the period from September 1988 to October 1992 due to the massive marketing of inkjet printer, and it underwent the second chaos during the period from April 2008 to November 2009 because of the integration with local area network (LAN).

第一章 緒論 1
第一節 研究背景與動機 1
第二節 研究目的 2
第三節 研究架構 3
第二章 文獻探討 5
第一節 混沌理論 5
第二節 技術變遷 14
第三節 產業現況 17
第三章 研究方法 19
第一節 局部赫斯特指數 19
1. 赫斯特指數的定義 19
2. 赫斯特指數之相關判定 21
3. 局部赫斯特指數之天花法 22
第二節 局部李亞普諾夫指數 24
1. 李亞普諾夫指數的定義 24
2. 李亞普諾夫指數之相關判定 25
3. 局部李亞普諾夫指數 25
第三節 問題描述 27
第四章 資料蒐集 28
第一節 量化資料 28
1. 專利意涵與種類 28
2. 專利採礦 29
3. 檢索策略 30
第二節 蒐集過程 33
1. 擷取 34
2. 集群 36
3. 檢索 38
第五章 量化分析 40
第一節 局部赫斯特指數運算 40
第二節 局部李亞普諾夫指數運算 45
第三節 量化分析之發現 47
第六章 個案描述 48
第一節 T0：1976年以前 48
第二節 T1：1976年至1988年8月 50
第三節 T2：1988年9月至1992年10月 52
第四節 T3：1992年11月至2008年3月 53
第五節 T4：2008年4月至2009年11月 55
第六節 T5：2009年12月以後 56
第七章 結論與討論 58
第八章 參考文獻 61
第一節 中文文獻 61
第二節 英文文獻 61
附錄A 關鍵詞彙之IPC集群分布圖 68
附錄B 列印技術相關專利原始資料 71
附錄C 自迴歸移動平均模型 73

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