許多文獻的實證結果顯示，參與貨幣聯盟可以增加國家貿易。1999年歐元發行後，使歐元區物價穩定，促進貿易與投資，更深化金融整合。「歐元之父」Mundell建議世界應該由美元、歐元和亞元共組大貨幣區，三幣之間固定匯率，使世界經濟保持穩定。
本研究嘗試推論亞洲地區成立亞元，對亞洲國家貿易的影響。為了探討貿易增加的途徑，將貿易量分解成extensive margin與intensive margin。Extensive margin指的是出口商品的種類數，而intensive margin指的是個別貿易商品的出口值。由於可以由extensive margin的增加衡量社會福利效果的改變，因此，extensive margin為近年來學者研究的目標。
本研究採用gravity model，利用不同區域樣本分析貨幣聯盟對該地區貿易的影響，再根據實證結果推論亞洲發行亞元對亞洲國家貿易的影響。結果顯示，亞元的發行將使亞洲地區之貿易有顯著的增長，主要來源為雙邊貿易商品種類的增加，即extensive margin增加。

Many empirical studies show that participating in currency unions can promote trade. After the Euro was released in 1999, the prices become stable, and it promotes trade and investments, and deepens financial integration in Euro area. Mundell suggests that there should be three major currencies in the world, including the Dollar, the Euro and Asian currency unit (ACU), and there should be a fixed exchange rate among them.
This study attempts to infer ACU’s potential effects on Asian trade by decomposing trade into its extensive and intensive margins, where the extensive margin is an increase in the number of firms or products, and the intensive margin is a rise in the value of trade by existing firms or products. Recent research in trade theory has emphasized this distinction, as it has intensive implications for the welfare gains of trade.
This study uses empirical gravity model to quantify the effects using large panel data. Analyzing the effects of currency unions in different regions, and infer the effects of Asian countries based on other regional empirical results. The empirical results show that ACU will have a significant growth in trade in Asia largely at the extensive margin, the entry of new firms or products.

摘要 I
第一章 緒論 1
第一節 、研究背景與動機 1
第二節 、研究流程 3
第二章 貨幣聯盟發展歷程 5
第一節 、歐元發展歷程 5
第二節 、非洲共同貨幣區域 11
(一)西非經濟暨貨幣聯盟 12
(二)中部非洲經濟與貨幣共同體 14
(三)南非共同貨幣區 15
第三節 、美元化制度 15
第四節 、亞洲單一貨幣之路 17
第三章 文獻回顧 22
第一節 、最適通貨區 22
第二節 、貨幣聯盟簡介 25
第三節 、貨幣聯盟對貿易影響 27
第四章 研究方法 31
第一節 、PANEL DATA 介紹 31
第二節 、GRAVITY MODEL介紹 32
第五章 實證分析 34
第一節 、出口邊際的衡量 34
第二節 、實證模型 36
第三節 、資料來源 38
第六章 實證結果與分析 41
第一節 、全部國家 43
第二節 、歐盟15國 46
第三節 、非洲國家 49
第四節 、亞洲國家 52
第五節 、東亞國家 55
第七章 亞洲國家貿易推論 58
第八章 結論與建議 62
參考文獻 65
附錄、國家列表 70

一、中文部分
彭德明：〈東亞共同通貨區可行性初探-兼論東亞地區的經濟與金融合作〉，《中央銀行季刊》，第二十七卷第四期(2005)。
李怡萱：〈東亞匯率制度〉，《國際金融參考資料》，第五十一輯(2003)。
楊建業：〈亞洲區域金融合作：發展之路與挑戰〉，《國際金融參考資料》，第五十七輯(2008)。
蔣逸青：〈「亞元」成立之可行性分析〉，《亞太和平月刊》，第一卷第六期(2009)。
宋衛剛：〈美元化問題研究〉，《財經問題研究》，第八期(2006)。
王啟明、陳怡君、蕭倩琳：〈歐洲與亞洲共同貨幣政策之發展：從比較區域研究角度分析〉，《全球政治評論》，第二十五期(2009)，頁117-150。
李俊毅、羅至美，〈歐洲歷史：分析層次的觀點〉，《政治科學論叢》，第四十六期(2010)，頁71-110。
游淑雅：〈歐元在國際市場角色之探討〉，《國際金融參考資料》，第五十輯(2004)。

二、西文部分
Alesina, A., and R.J. Barro (2002), “Currency Unions”, Quarterly Journal of Economics 117 (2), pp 409-436.
Anderson, J.E. (1979), “A Theoretical Foundation for the Gravity Equation”, American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(1), pp 106-16.
Anderson, J.E. and E.V. Wincoop (2003), “Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle”, American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pp 170-192.
Anderson, J.E. and E.V. Wincoop (2004), “Trade Costs”, Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 42(3), pp 691-751, September.
Baldwin, R.E., F. Skudelny and D. Taglioni (2005), “Trade Effects of the Euro-Evidence from Sectoral Data”, European Central Bank Working Paper Series no. 446.
Baldwin, R.E. and V. Di Nino (2006) “Euros and Zeros: the Common Currency Effect on Trade in New Goods”, NBER Working Papers no. 12673.
Bergin, P.R. and C-Y. Lin (2008), “Exchange Rate Regimes and the Extensive Margin of Trade”, NBER Working Papers no. 14126.
Bergin, P.R. and C-Y. Lin (2012), “The Dynamic Effects of a Currency Union on Trade”, Journal of International Economics, doi:10.1016/j.jinteco.2012.01.005.
Bergin, P.R. and R. Glick (2005), “Tradability, Productivity, and Understanding International Economic Integration”, NBER Working Papers no. 11637.
Bun, M.J.G. and F.J.G.M. Klaassen (2002), “Has the Euro Increased Trade?”, Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers no. 02-108/2.
Bun, M.J.G. and F.J.G.M. Klaassen (2007), “The Euro Effect on Trade Is Not as Large as Commonly Thought”, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 69 (4), pp 473-496.
Eichengreen, B., and D. A. Irwin (1995), “Trade Blocs, Currency Blocs, and the
Reorientation of World Trade in the 1930s.” Journal of International Economics 38, pp 1-24.
Feenstra, R.C. (1994), “New Product Varieties and the Measurement of International Prices”, American Economic Review, 84(1), pp 157–77.
Feenstra, R.C., R.E. Lipsey, H. Deng, A.C. Ma, and H. Mo (2005) “World Trade Flows, 1962-2000”, NBER Working Paper no.11040.
Flam, H. and H. Nordström (2006a), “Trade Volume Effects of the Euro: Aggregate and Sector Estimates”, Institute for International Economic Studies Seminar Papers no. 746.
Fleming, J.M. (1971), “On Exchange Rate Unification”, The Economic Journal, 81, pp 467-488.
Frankel, J., and S-J. Wei (1993), “Is There a Currency Bloc in the Pacific?”, in Exchange Rates, International Trade and the Balance of Payments, edited by Adrian Blundell-Wignall. Reserve Bank of Australia, Sydney, pp 275-308.
Frankel, J.A. (2008), “The Estimated Effects of the Euro on Trade: Why Are They Below Historical Effects of Monetary Unions Among Smaller Countries?”, NBER Working Papers no. 14542.
Glick, R. and A.K. Rose (2002), “Does a Currency Union Affect Trade? The Time-Series Evidence”, European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(6), pp 1125-1151, June.
Hausmann, R., U. Panizza, and E. Stein.(2000), “Why Do Countries Float the Way They Float?” Washington, DC: Inter-American Development Bak. (mimeo.)
Hiromasa, F. (2002), “The Theory of Optimum Currency Areas: An Introductory Survey”, Mita Festival 2002 Paper, Keio University.
Hummels, D. and P.J. Klenow (2005), “The Variety and Quality of a Nation’s Exports”, American Economic Review, 95(3), pp 704-723.
Ingram, J.C. (1969), “Comment: The Currency Area Problem”, in R. Mundell and A. Swoboda, Monetary Problems in the International Economy, Chicago, University of Chicago Press.
Kehoe, T.J. and K.J. Ruhl (2009), “How Important Is the New Goods Margin in International Trade?”, Staff Report 324, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
Kenen, P. (1969), “The Theory of Optimum Currency Areas: An Eclectic View”, in R. A. Mundell and A. K. Swoboda, (eds.) Monetary Problems of the International Economy, University of Chicago Press, pp 41-60.
Klein, M.W. and J.C. Shambaugh (2006), “Fixed Exchange Rates and Trade”, Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(2), pp 359-383.
Krugman, P. (1980), “Vehicle Currencies and the Structure of International Exchange”, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 12(3), pp 513-26.
McKinnon, R. (1963), “Optimum Currency Areas”, American Economic Review 53, pp 717-725.
Melitz, M.J. (2003), “The Impact of Trade on Intra-Industry Reallocations and Aggregate Industry Productivity”, Econometrica, 71(6), pp 1695-1725.
Micco, A., E. Stein and G. Ordoez (2003), “The Currency Union Effect on Trade: Early Evidence from EMU”, Economic Policy, 18 (37), pp 315-356.
Mundell, R.A. (1961), “A Theory of Optimal Currency Area”, American Economic Review 51, pp 657-664.
Mundell, R.A. (1973), “Uncommon Arguments for Common Currencies”, in H. G. Johnson and A. K. Swoboda, The Economics of Common Currencies, Allen and Unwin, pp 114-132.
Mundell, R.A. (2003), “Prospects for an Asian currency area”, Journal of Asian Economics, Vol. 14, Issue 1, pp.5-8.
OECD (1999), EMU: Facts, Challenges and Policies, Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, Paris, France
Papaioannou E. and R. Porte (2008), “The International Role of the Euro: A Status Report”, European Economy. Economic Papers. 317. April 2008. 68pp. Tab. Graph.
Rose, A. (2000), “One Money, One Market: Estimating the Effect of Common Currencies on Trade”, Economic Policy, 15 (30), pp 7-45.
Rose, A. (2000), “EMU’s Potential Effect on British Trade: A Quantitative Assessment”.
Rose, A. and C. Engel (2001), “Currency Unions and International Integration,” NBER Working Paper no. 7872.
Rose, A. (2006), “Currency Unions”, for The New Palgrave.
Tinbergen, J. (1962), “An Analysis of World Trade Flows,” in Shaping the World Economy, edited by Jan Tinbergen. New York, NY: Twentieth Century Fund.
Watanabe, S. and M. Ogura (2006), “How Far Apart Are Two ACUs from Each Other? : Asian Currency Unit and Asian Currency Union”, Bank of Japan Working Paper Series no.06-E-20.

三、 網路資源
經濟部國際貿易局：〈西部非洲國家經濟共同體〉
http://www.trade.gov.tw/Pages/Detail.aspx?nodeID=261&pid=77504
經濟部國際貿易局：〈西非經濟暨貨幣聯盟簡介（UEXTENSIVE MARGINOA）〉
http://www.trade.gov.tw/Pages/Detail.aspx?nodeID=261&pid=77502
經濟部國際貿易局：〈中部非洲國家經濟共同體〉
http://www.trade.gov.tw/Pages/Detail.aspx?nodeID=261&pid=77499
經濟部國際貿易局：〈共同貨幣區〉
http://www.trade.gov.tw/Pages/Detail.aspx?nodeID=261&pid=77498