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作者(中文):陳靜
作者(外文):Chen, Ching
論文名稱(中文):GPU-Based Monte Carlo Calibration to Implied Volatility Surfaces under Multi-Factor Stochastic Volatility Model
論文名稱(外文):多因子隨機波動率下對隱含波動率曲面進行模型校準:基於GPU的蒙地卡羅模擬法
指導教授(中文):韓傳祥
指導教授(外文):Han, Chuan-Hsiang
口試委員(中文):姜祖恕
吳慶堂
顏如儀
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:國立清華大學
系所名稱:計量財務金融學系
學號:100071502
出版年(民國):102
畢業學年度:101
語文別:英文
論文頁數:39
中文關鍵詞:volatilitymodel calibrationMonte Carlo simulationmulti-factor Stochastic Volatility Model (SVM)Martingale Control Variate (MCV)(Corrected) Fourier transform methodGraphics Processing Unit (GPU)
外文關鍵詞:volatilitymodel calibrationMonte Carlo simulationmulti-factor Stochastic Volatility Model (SVM)Martingale Control Variate (MCV)(Corrected) Fourier transform methodGraphics Processing Unit (GPU)
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Financial markets comprise of the spot market and its derivative market. The spot market contains information that is backward-looking. On the other hand, the derivative market uses a forward-looking concept. Model calibration, which is the focus of this paper, is a crucial tool to analyze forward information, which is frequently utilize when regarding pricing, hedging, and risk management.

A model calibration problem is mainly about solving a nonlinear optimization problem to find the best fit of implied volatility surface. This kind of problem can be solved by many different methods, including Fourier transform, perturbation methods, numerical PDEs, etc. The above methods are based on deterministic approaches, which are restricted to simple models; these lack flexibility and are inapplicable in high-dimensional models. Hence Monte Carlo simulation is employ to solve complex high-dimensional models.

We propose a multi-factor Stochastic Volatility Model (SVM) that takes different frequency data into account. Literatures find the dynamic of implied volatilities is better fitted under multi-factor SVM. The accuracy of the Monte Carlo simulation can be improved using a variance reduction method, known as, the Martingale Control Variate (MCV). The advantage of better fitting comes with the problem of massive computation. We involve parallel computing on the Graphics Processing Unit (GPU) to help solve this problem. GPUs are first used for computer graphing, which turn increasingly programmable and computationally powerful especially on calculations that are carried out simultaneously. Combining GPU parallel computing with the Martingale Control Variate method will result in a model calibration of multi-factor SVM that is even more precise and more feasible to analyze option data in real time.

After developing the model, the time dependent volatility model is used to calculate the Volatility Index (VIX) with the use of the term structure of VIX published by the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) we can solve the identification problem that we faced in multi-factor SVM.
Abstract i
Acknowledgements ii
Table of Contents iii
Chapter 1 Introduction and Literature Review 1
Chapter 2 Methodology: Two-Stage Monte Carlo Calibration with GPU Computing 3
2.1 Fourier Transform Method with Correction 3
2.2 Monte Carlo Simulation with GPU Computing 7
2.3 Optimization 10
2.4 Two-Stage Monte Carlo Calibration 12
Chapter 3 Single-Factor Stochastic Volatility Model 13
3.1 The Single-Factor Stochastic Volatility Model 13
3.2 Two-Stage Monte Carlo Calibration 14
3.3 Comparison of Monte Carlo Calibration Methods 18
Chapter 4 Multi-Factor Stochastic Volatility Model 18
4.1 The Two-Factor Stochastic Volatility Model 19
4.2 Two-Stage Monte Carlo Calibration 20
4.3 Consistent Test 25
4.4 Other Multi-Factor SVM Calibration 27
Chapter 5 Comparison 29
Chapter 6 Conclusion and Future Work 34
Reference 36
Appendix 38
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