摘要
改革開放之後，中國社會的適婚青年未婚比率逐日提高，適齡未婚現象儼然成為近年中國重要的人口議題。然而，中國青年的適齡未婚因素為何？他們是晚婚？不婚？還是無法結婚呢？針對這些問題，本文使用中國2008年的綜合社會調查(China Social General Survey, CGSS 2008)，並搭配隨機效果事件史模型(Random Effect Event History Model)，探討中國青年主要適齡未婚因素，以及他們未來成為潛在終生未婚機率。研究結果顯示：受到工業化教育以及職業結構轉變的影響，適齡青年的初婚年齡因此向後延遲，整體的適齡未婚機率也因此向上提升。除此之外，本研究還發現中國男性工人的適齡結婚機率明顯低於其他職業，而35歲的未婚情形也比其他職業來得嚴重。

關鍵字：中國人口、婚姻、結婚時間、晚婚、終生未婚

Abstract
After Chinese Economic Reform, the proportion of single people at the appropriate age for marriage is rising, and the phenomenon becomes one of the most important issues for Chinese demography. However, are these people getting married later? Do they reject to get married? Can’t they get married? In order to answer these questions, this article uses data from China Social General Survey at 2008 with Random Effect Event History Model to examine the unmarried reasons for these people and estimate their probability of getting married. I find that: Because of the transitions of educational structures and the labor market by industrialization, most of people delay their first marriage time, therefore, they decline the marriage rate at the appropriate age for marriage of Chinese society. Furthermore, I find Chinese male workers are significantly difficult to get married than others who are unmarried at 35 years old.

Key words: Chinese demography, marriage, marriage timing, late marriage, never married

目次
第一章 導論-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------5
第二章 文獻探討------------------------------------------------------------------------------------7
(一) 中國工業化與婚姻市場的轉變------------------------------------------------------7
(二) 相關的婚姻研究與理論--------------------------------------------------------------12
壹、 工業化結構轉變與初婚年齡延遲-------------------------------------------13
貳、 個人經濟因素以及家庭因素對於婚姻抉擇的影響---------------------15
第三章 研究假設-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------20
第四章 數據與研究方法-------------------------------------------------------------------------22
第五章 結果分析-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------29
(一) 中國適婚男女各年齡間的結婚機率----------------------------------------------29
(二) 中國適婚男女各年齡間的未婚比例----------------------------------------------31
(三) 影響適婚男女的初婚因素-----------------------------------------------------------32
(四) 各項婚姻條件對於適齡結婚機率的影響---------------------------------------35
(五) 中國潛在的終身未婚以及無法結婚群體---------------------------------------40
第六章 結論-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------46
第七章 參考文獻-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------48

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