自工業革命、電力應用、汽車與航空運輸工業崛起，人類的活動大量排放溫室氣體，導致地球暖化與氣候變遷。2008年的全球溫室氣體濃度已上升至385ppm，並導致全球氣候逐漸極端化，造成各地氣候異常，並對於全球經濟產生衝擊與損失。如2009年中國華南大雪，衝擊華南地區相關企業營運與交通運輸；又如2011年度的泰國水災，影響全球汽車元件與硬碟供應。因此，在因應京都議定書與發展氣候變遷的調整政策下，除全球政府逐漸制定相關溫室氣體排放與節能的法規與稅賦，在非政府組織的倡議下，全球500大企業受「碳揭露計畫組織」(Carbon Disclosure Project, CDP)之邀參與計畫問卷，揭露本體企業營運的溫室氣體排放，與下游供應商的提倡與推展(CDP,2012)。這會影響企業持續發展的風險與營運成本的增加。因此，企業經營除關注原有經濟面風險外，另須關注新的氣候變遷所造成之風險，使得企業經營更為困難。故本研究先蒐集現有產業產品需求與製造生產溫室氣體排放資訊，然後透過系統動態學建構企業之營運成長與溫室氣體排放耗用模型，配合現有亞洲溫室氣體排放法規與賦稅壓力和產業競爭者的減量計畫，作為企業進行溫室氣體減量之投資方案的評估。本研究以TFT-LCD產業做為範例，透過將TFT-LCD產業營運性質套用入系統動態模型，並以配合台電減量模式、現有台灣產業界之減量模式、韓國競爭者之減量模式與日本競爭者之減量模式進行情境模擬，獲得各模擬情境之潛在環境成本評估，最後作為台灣廠商之溫室氣體減量方案參考。

Since the industrial revolution, electricity, automotive and aviation industries rise, a large number of greenhouse gases were emission by human activities, leading to global warming and climate change. In 2008, the global greenhouse gas concentrations have risen to 385ppm, and led to the gradual global climate extremes, causing the climate anomalies, and impacting on the global economy and losses. Like snow damage in southern China in 2009, it impact related business operations and transportations around southern China; Another example is the flooding in Thailand in 2011, affecting the global supply chain of automotive components and hard disk. Therefore, by following the Kyoto Protocol and developing adjustment policies on climate change, the greenhouse gas emissions and energy saving regulations and taxes are be determined by several global governments, and under the NGO’s initiative, the global 500 companies are invited by "Carbon Disclosure Project" to reply the questionnaire exposing the corporate operational greenhouse gas inventory and the promote to downstream suppliers (CDP, 2012). The new regulations and taxes will affect the sustainable development of enterprise risks and operating costs increase. Therefore, beside the economic risk, the corporate must focus on new risks caused by climate change, making the business operation more difficult. In this study, the first is to collect the existing industrial product demand and greenhouse gas emissions data during manufacturing stage, and then build system dynamics model through the business growth with greenhouse gas emissions, comparing with greenhouse gas emissions regulations and tax pressures and industry competitors reduction plan in Asia, as a corporate greenhouse gas reduction investment program assessments model. In this study, TFT-LCD industry as an example, through TFT-LCD industry apply their normally operations into the system dynamic model, and to cope with the reduction plan of existing industry patterns in Taiwan, Korea and Japan competitors as scenario simulation model. Then obtain the simulated scenarios assessment of the potential environmental asset, and finally as a reduction program reference for Taiwanese manufacturers.

中文摘要 2
ABSTRACT 3
目 錄 4
表 目 錄 5
圖 目 錄 6
1. 緒論 7
1.1 研究背景 7
1.2 研究動機與目的 8
1.3 研究方法與步驟 9
2. 文獻探討 10
2.1 溫室氣體與國際減量趨勢 10
2.2 TFT-LCD產業 16
3. 研究方法 20
3.1. 系統動態學發展 20
3.2. 系統動態學建構流程與符號定義 23
3.3. 研究流程與步驟 26
4. 案例研究 27
4.1. 質化模型 27
4.2. 量化模型 31
4.3. 範例企業情境模擬與結果闡釋 34
5. 結論 46
6. 參考文獻 48
7. 附錄 50

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