半導體記憶體製造的技術快速發展使得產品生命週期縮短、增加了產品過時的風險性，使得持有存貨的成本相對昂貴與冒險；另一方面，需求的 不確定與冗長的前置時間，又迫使製造商必須維持一定存貨水位以滿足顧客立即且大量的需求。文獻多以需求的變異或預測誤差為建立安全存貨水位之主要參數。然而，實務上面對上百上千種不同產品需求時，存貨規劃人員採用更直覺的指標：存貨天數，用以代表目前存貨的水位可滿足未來幾天或幾月的需求。本研究透過數值模擬的方法針對文獻回顧中所提出的三種安全存貨設定方法需求預測誤差法、需求變異法以及存貨天數法，比較三種方法在不同需求型態下的對於需求預估的表現情形，並選定存貨天數法作為安全存貨設定方法的依據。
本研究提出以安全存貨天數為決策要素之多階存貨模型，以物料需求計畫的概念計算半導體製造流程各階段的存貨資訊，並考慮存貨管理中的缺貨問題、過量或未滿足安全存貨以及製程產能平衡，並以線性規劃的方式轉化為成本目標推算未來數期的存貨分佈與安全存貨設定及整體存貨水位之關係。最後，本研究以某半導體記憶體製造廠為實證案例，驗證結果說明藉由四階安全存貨水位的設立，可以發揮預先備貨的功能，在滿足相同需求的情形下，可使得下游庫存點的存貨大幅減少，避免需求變異而造成持有存貨過多的情形，減少未來存貨跌價損失提列的風險，以提升半導體製造商之競爭力。

目錄 i
表目錄 iii
圖目錄 iv
第一章 緒論 1
1.1 研究背景、動機與重要性 1
1.2 研究目的與研究範圍 2
1.3 論文結構 3
第二章 文獻回顧 5
2.1 可允諾量 5
2.2 安全存貨 7
2.3 多層級存貨管理 14
第三章 多階安全存貨最適化之決策模式 16
3.1 瞭解問題 21
3.2 界定利基 23
3.3 架構影響關係 24
3.4 客觀敘述感受 30
3.5 綜合判斷與主觀衡量 31
3.6 權衡與決策 31
第四章 實證分析 32
4.1 案例公司背景與及現行作法 32
4.2 問題定義 34
4.3 界定利基 36
4.4 架構影響關係 37
4.5 客觀敘述感受 41
4.6 綜合判斷與主觀衡量 53
4.7 權衡與決策 59
第五章 結論與未來研究方向 62
參考文獻 63

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