這幾年適逢中美貿易戰，又逢COVID 19 疫情勢虐，美聯儲透過不斷的進行貨幣寬
鬆政策，如印鈔、加息等軟著陸的經濟策略，已令通貨膨漲嚴重，房價、股價也隨之
高漲，民眾的名目所得縱有提高，實質所得卻在衰退，有更多民眾開始學習股市投資
對抗通膨，希望可以找出強勢股的關鍵訊號並在短期內獲得較高的報酬。
筆者研究今年2024/01/01~2014/05/31，選出台灣股市漲幅最高的前50 檔股票，這
些股漲幅皆有100%以上，透過基本面分析月營收與季財報，技術面分析研究移動平均
線/MACD/KDJ，籌碼面分析研究成交量、大戶持股比例與融資融券，試圖找出強勢股
的關鍵訊號。
透過本研究結果找出的關鍵訊號，並不完全具備通用性的顯著指標，僅能找到一些
可能存在的指標趨勢。大部份的強勢股票，月營收增長率在近幾個月有突然飆高且呈
現U 型收歛/打底/翻紅的情況；移動平均線的長均線斜率拉平，並呈現U 型打底上
揚，最終突破六條均線且上揚後，會有較大的漲幅；而在籌碼面較難發現通用的訊
號，一些股票會因為大戶持股具有一定比例，且短線籌碼集中，加上融資增加會有短
期反應，但分佈不夠明顯，短期三大法人的買超量雖不在本研究範圍內，但依學者文
獻探討大多提及具有正相關性，筆者建議三個層面的訊號需要同時具備時，再進場投
資，比起盲目投資會有一定程度的判斷依據。
關鍵詞：台灣股市、強勢股、關鍵指標、基本面分析、技術面分析、籌碼面分析

In the past few years, during the Sino-US trade war and the COVID-19 epidemic, the Federal
Reserve has continued to carry out monetary easing policies, such as money printing, interest
rate hikes and other soft landing economic strategies, which has caused serious inflation,
housing prices, Stock prices have also risen accordingly. Even though people's nominal
income has increased, their real income has declined. More and more people have begun to
learn how to invest in the stock market to combat inflation, hoping to find the key signals of
strong stocks and obtain higher returns in the short term.
The author studied the period from 2024/01/01 to 2014/05/31 this year and selected the top 50
stocks with the highest gains in the Taiwan stock market. These stocks all increased by more
than 100%. Through fundamental analysis of monthly revenue and quarterly financial reports,
the author analyzed the technical aspects. Analyze and study moving averages/MACD/KDJ,
chip analysis and research on trading volume, shareholding ratio of large investors and margin
trading, trying to find the key signals of strong stocks.
The key signals identified through the results of this research are not fully universal and
significant indicators, and only some possible indicator trends can be found. For most strong
stocks, the monthly revenue growth rate has suddenly soared in recent months and has shown
a U-shaped convergence/bottoming/rising trend; the long average slope of the moving
average has flattened and shown a U-shaped bottom. After rising, and finally breaking
through the six moving averages and rising, there will be a larger increase; and it is difficult to
find general signals in the chips. Some stocks will have a certain proportion due to large
shareholders holding shares, and short-term chips are concentrated, coupled with increased
iv
financing, there will be Short-term response, but the distribution is not obvious enough.
Although the short-term overbuying of the three major legal entities is not within the scope of
this study, it is mostly mentioned in the literature by scholars that it has a positive correlation.
The author suggests that when the signals at three levels need to be present at the same time,
then proceed Compared with blind investment, market investment will have a certain degree
of judgment basis.
Keywords: Taiwan Stock Market, Strong Stocks, Key Indicators, Fundamental Analysis,
Technical Analysis, Chip Analysis

摘要................................................. ii
ABSTRACT....................................... iii
誌 謝............................................. v
目 錄.............................................. vi
表目錄.................................viii
圖目錄......................................... ix
第一章 導論............................................. 1
1.1 研究動機與背景........................ 1
1.2 研究目的......................... 1
1.3 研究流程與架構..................... 2
第二章 文獻探討.............................. 3
2.1 基本面分析之相關文獻....................... 3
2.2 技術面分析之相關文獻.................... 6
2.3 籌碼面分析之相關文獻....................... 7
第三章 研究方法..................................... 9
3.1 研究架構.................................... 9
3.2 研究樣本與資料來源.............. 10
3.3 關鍵指標衡量................................ 12
第四章 研究分析與結果.................................. 17
4.1 基本面分析..................................... 17
4.1.1 月度營業收入..................... 17
4.1.2 季度財務報表........................ 30
4.2 技術面分析............................. 36
4.2.1 移動平均線(MA).................. 37
4.2.2 MACD 與KDJ....................... 40
4.3 籌碼面分析......................................... 42
4.3.1 成交量相關數據..................... 42
4.3.2 大戶持股比例.......................... 48
4.3.3 融資融券................................. 50
vii
第五章 結論與建議..................................... 54
5.1 結論......................................... 54
5.2 未來研究方向建議.................... 57
參考文獻..................................................... 59
中文文獻.............................................. 59
英文文獻.............................................. 60

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