臺灣的高房價一直以來都是民生與政策之重要議題，對於造成房價居高不下的原因有許多看法與討論。本研究嘗試同時探討外匯市場、股票市場、貨幣市場變數對房價指數變動率之影響，並且本研究利用文字探勘技術擷取網路新聞，編製出在匯率升值與貶值、房價上漲與下跌情況下之情緒指標。實證結果顯示熱錢對房價指數變動率為正向影響，新臺幣兌美元匯率對房價指數變動率為負向影響。此外，在匯率升值與房價上漲之情況下，網路新聞正向情緒與負面情緒之差增加時，也就是網路新聞偏向正向看待此二件事時，對房價指數變動率有相反之影響。當網路新聞偏向正面看待匯率升值，會使房價指數變動率下降，而當網路新聞偏向正面看待房價上漲，會使房價指數變動率上升。此結果顯示，除了房地產市場之情緒指標外，外匯市場情緒指標亦會影響民眾是否投入房市之決策，進而對房價指數變動率有所影響。

The high price of houses in Taiwan is always an important issue to people and the government. There are many perspectives and discussions about it. From the aspect of foreign exchange market, stock market as well as money market, we tried to do research on what independent variables would affect the rate of change of housing price index. In addition, we built sentiment indicators under the circumstances of exchange rate appreciation, exchange rate depreciation, housing price rising and housing price falling through text mining. The outcome of the research shows that hot money is positive correlated to the rate of change of housing price index while NTD to USD exchange rate is negative correlated to the rate of change of housing price index. Besides, when the attitude of internet news is more positive to exchange rate appreciation, the rate of change of housing price index would decline. In contrast, when the attitude of internet news is more positive to housing price rising, it would have positive impact on the rate of change of housing price index. The result implies that not only the sentiment indicator of house market but also the sentiment indicator of foreign exchange rate market influence people’s decision to make a deal in house market or not, which would further lead to the rate of change of housing price index.

1.前言 1
2.文獻回顧 5
3.研究方法 11
4.實證結果 17
5.結論 25
參考文獻 27
附錄 30

朱芳妮, 楊茜文, 蘇子涵, 與陳明吉 (2020a)，「情緒會影響房市嗎？指數編製與驗證」，《住宅學報》，29，35-68。
朱芳妮, 楊茜文, 黃御維, 與陳明吉 (2020b)，「媒體傳播效應與房市變化關聯性之驗證」，《管理學報》，37，225-257。
李苑慈 (2010)，「熱錢與臺灣實質資本市場之關聯性」，碩士論文，新竹：國立清華大學經濟學系研究所。
郭偉傑 (2020)，「各類新聞與正負面情緒對房市之影響：文字探勘之應用」，碩士論文，臺北：國立政治大學財務管理學系研究所。
陳虹宇, 吳聰敏, 李怡庭, 與陳旭昇 (2021)，《致富的特權：二十年來我們為央行政策付出的代價》，初版，臺北：春山出版。
黃暐迪 (2023 年 11 月 26 日)，臺灣住宅變準金融商品　章定煊曝：房價「這樣」刺激出來的，好房網News，取自：https://news.housefun.com.tw/news/article/205642401397.html，訪問於 2024 年 4 月 12 日。
黃裕烈, 葉錦徽, 與陳重吉 (2021)，「臺灣經濟政策不確定性指標之建構與分析」，《經濟論文叢刊》，49，307-334。
黃裕烈與管中閔 (2019) 「美國聯準會會議紀要的文字探勘與台灣經濟變數預測」，《經濟論文叢刊》，47，363-391。
楊青燕 (2012)，「熱錢流入是否會影響臺灣股價與房價」，碩士論文，新竹：國立清華大學經濟學系研究所。
蔡昀蓁 (2022)，「台灣房地產市場及經濟變數間之關聯性：文字探勘的應用」，碩士論文，新竹：國立清華大學財務金融碩士在職專班。
Alagidede, P., Panagiotidis, T., and Zhang, X. (2011), “Causal relationship between stock prices and exchange rates,” The Journal of International Trade and Economic Development, 20, 67-86.
American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, 3, 114-138.
Bahmani-Oskooee, M., and Saha, S. (2016), “Do exchange rate changes have symmetric or asymmetric effects on stock prices? ,” Global Finance Journal, 31, 57-72.
Baker, S. R., Bloom, N., and Davis, S. J. (2016), “Measuring economic policy uncertainty,” The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 131, 1593-1636.
Chen, N. K. (2001), “Asset price fluctuations in Taiwan: Evidence from stock and real estate prices 1973 to 1992,” Journal of Asian Economics, 12, 215-232.
Daniel, K. (2012), Thinking, fast and slow, New York: FSG.
Feng, L., Lin, C. Y., and Wang, C. (2017), “Do capital flows matter to stock and house prices? Evidence from China,” Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 53, 2215-2232.
Gokmenoglu, K., and Hesami, S. (2019), “Real estate prices and stock market in Germany: analysis based on hedonic price index,” International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, 12, 687-707.
Guo, F., and Huang, Y. S. (2010), “Does “hot money” drive China's real estate and stock markets?,” International Review of Economics and Finance, 19, 452-466.
Ibrahim, M. H. (2010), “House price‐stock price relations in Thailand: An empirical analysis,” International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, 3, 69-82.
Kapopoulos*, P., and Siokis, F. (2005), “Stock and real estate prices in Greece: wealth versus ‘credit-price’effect,” Applied Economics Letters, 12, 125-128.
Lean, H. H., and Smyth, R. (2014), “Dynamic interaction between house prices and stock prices in Malaysia,” International Journal of Strategic Property Management, 18, 163-177.
Lin, C. H. (2012), “The comovement between exchange rates and stock prices in the Asian emerging markets,” International Review of Economics and Finance, 22, 161-172.
Mahmoudinia, D., and Mostolizadeh, S. M. (2023), “(A) symmetric interaction between house prices, stock market and exchange rates using linear and nonlinear approach: the case of Iran,” International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, 16, 648-671.
Martin, M. F., and Morrison, W. M. (2019), China's" hot money" problems, Washington: Congressional Research Service.
Sim, S., and Chang, B. (2006), “Stock and real estate markets in Korea: wealth or credit-price effect,” Journal of Economic Research-seoul-, 11, 103.
Zhang, G., and Fung, H. G. (2006), “On the imbalance between the real estate market and the stock markets in China,” Chinese Economy, 39, 26-39.