近年來，美中貿易戰的影響逐漸擴散，不僅衝擊全球經濟，亦對台灣房地產市場產生了深遠影響。貿易戰引發的製造業訂單轉移，為台灣經濟注入了新的活力。台灣在半導體產業中扮演著不可或缺的角色，而作為台灣科技之城的新竹，更是半導體產業發展的重要重鎮。受惠於經濟成長和產業升級，新竹地區的房地產市場呈現持續上揚的趨勢，漲幅不遜色於六都。國際環境的變動，也對台灣整體房地產市場的居住成本產生了影響。
住宅作為民生必需品，其價格波動對民眾生活造成重大影響。為了了解新竹地區房地產市場在大環境變動下的變化情況與影響因素，本研究採用了官方公開資料，並利用敘述統計、單根檢定與多元線性迴歸分析方法進行研究。
研究結果發現，貨幣總計數（M2）、房貸利率、人口數、淨遷徙人數和景氣同時指標（不含趨勢指數）是影響新竹地區房地產指數的顯著因素。其中，貨幣總計數（M2）和房貸利率是影響房地產指數的主要因素。當貨幣供給量增加時，市場上流通的貨幣量也隨之增加，資金成本下降，購房者更容易獲得貸款，進而刺激房地產市場需求，推升房價。此外，當房貸利率低時，貸款人更願意借貸，這可視為貨幣政策寬鬆，進而使清華安富房價指數上揚。

In recent years, the impact of the US-China trade war has gradually spread, affecting not only the global economy but also profoundly influencing Taiwan's real estate market. The shift in manufacturing orders due to the trade war has contributed to revitalizing Taiwan's economy. Taiwan plays an indispensable role in the semiconductor industry, and Hsinchu, known as Taiwan's technology city, is a crucial hub for semiconductor development. Benefiting from economic growth and industrial upgrading, the real estate market in Hsinchu has shown a continuous upward trend, growing at a pace comparable to the six major cities. Changes in the international environment have also impacted housing costs in Taiwan's overall real estate market.

As housing is a basic necessity, its price fluctuations significantly impact people's lives. To understand the changes and factors influencing the real estate market in Hsinchu under this evolving global environment, this study utilizes publicly available data and employs descriptive statistics, unit root tests, and multiple linear regression analysis methods.

The study finds that the money supply (M2), mortgage interest rates, population, net migration, and the business climate coincident indicator (excluding the trend index) are significant factors influencing the real estate index in Hsinchu. Among these, the money supply (M2) and mortgage interest rates are the primary factors affecting the real estate index. When the money supply increases, liquidity in the market increases, reducing the cost of capital. This makes it easier for homebuyers to obtain loans, thereby stimulating demand in the real estate market and contributing to rising housing prices. Additionally, when mortgage interest rates are low, borrowers are more willing to take out loans, which can be seen as a form of loose monetary policy, thus driving up the Tsinghua Anfu Housing Price Index.

目 錄

第一章 緒論 1
　第一節 研究背景與動機 1
　第二節 研究目的 3
　第三節 研究範圍與限制 4
　第四節 研究流程 5
第二章 相關文獻探討 6
　第一節 美中貿易戰的影響 6
　第二節 新竹科學園區 7
　第三節 房地產的意涵 8
　第四節 影響房地產因素探討 16
　第五節 房地產指數與多元線性迴歸分析 19
第三章 研究方法 20
　第一節 單根檢定 20
　第二節 多元線性迴歸分析 21
第四章 實證結果與分析 23
　第一節 敘述性統計分析 23
　第二節多元線性迴歸分析 51
第五章 結論與建議 75
　第一節 研究結論 75
　第二節 研究限制與建議未來研究 76
參考文獻 78

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