本文使用2019年中央研究院SRDA學術調查研究資料庫，所做的第一次社會意向電話民調結果資料為主體分析。根據受訪者對台海發生戰爭時保衛台灣的態度意願，以實證角度分析政黨傾向、公共政策議題態度以及受訪者主觀評價、及個人條件特質對赴戰場的關聯性，期盼能藉由實證方法分析提供政府與各政黨面對民調數據外，對台灣民眾意向能有更深層的理解、判斷與掌握。

本文主要實證結果顯示，「政黨傾向」對於台灣宣布獨立引發中國武力犯台與中國以統一名義攻打台灣，對泛藍與泛綠受訪者呈現截然不同正負顯著效果。泛綠受訪者對於台灣宣布獨立或中國以統一名義引爆台海戰爭，其保衛台灣意願皆呈現正向顯著效果，而泛藍受訪者對於因為宣佈台獨引發戰爭，其保衛台灣意願呈現明顯負向效果。泛綠民眾面對不同情境台海戰爭時，為台灣獨立而戰意願效果更遠大於為抵抗中國統一而戰。
公共政策議題方面，支持「反核四」與「同婚專法化」受訪者與兩種戰爭假設情境保衛台灣意願也同時呈現正向效果，受訪者年齡層方面18~29歲受訪者，面對兩種戰爭假設情境保衛台灣意願皆呈現正向效果。但其他受訪者主觀評價與個人特質，對於台海爆發戰爭報為台灣之意願則未出現顯著正相關或負相關。

由於維持台海現況並反對片面改變現況為台灣社會主流民意，本文建議政府與各政黨，透過參與國際社會與提高台灣的國際能見度，藉此對內強化台灣主體意識與國族認同，統獨立場爭議採取戰略模糊策略以順應國內民意趨勢，及國際社會對於台海區域穩定和平之期待。

This article uses the 2019 Academia Sinica SRDA academic survey and research database, and the results of the first social intention telephone poll conducted as the main body of analysis. According to the respondents' attitude and willingness to defend Taiwan in the event of a war in the Taiwan Strait, analyze the political party tendency, attitude towards public policy issues, the subjective evaluation of the respondents, and the relationship between personal conditions and characteristics on going to the battlefield from an empirical perspective. The method analysis provides the government and various political parties with the opinion survey data, and can have a deeper understanding, judgment and grasp of the intentions of the Taiwanese people.

The main empirical results of this paper show that “Party leaning” has different positive and negative effects on the pan-blue and pan-green respondents for Taiwan’s declaration of independence, triggering China’s military invasion of Taiwan, and China’s attack on Taiwan in the name of reunification. The pan-green respondents showed a positive and significant effect on their willingness to defend Taiwan when Taiwan declared independence or China detonated a war across the Taiwan Strait in the name of reunification, while the pan-blue respondents showed a significantly negative effect on their willingness to defend Taiwan due to the declaration of Taiwan independence triggering a war Effect. When the pan-green people face different scenarios of war across the Taiwan Strait, the effect of fighting for Taiwan independence is far greater than fighting against China's unification.
In terms of public policy issues, the support for "Anti-nuclear IV" and "legalization of same-sex marriage" and the willingness of the respondents to defend Taiwan under the two hypothetical scenarios of war also showed positive effects. The age of the respondents was 18-29 years old , the willingness to defend Taiwan in the face of the two war hypothetical scenarios has a positive effect. However, the subjective evaluations and personal characteristics of other respondents did not show a significant positive or negative correlation with the willingness to report for Taiwan when a war broke out in the Taiwan Strait.

Since maintaining the status quo in Taiwan and opposing unilateral changes to the status quo is the mainstream public opinion in Taiwan society, this article suggests that the government and political parties should participate in the international community and increase Taiwan’s international visibility, so as to internally strengthen Taiwan’s subject consciousness and national identity, and unify independent disputes Adopt a strategic ambiguity strategy to conform to the trend of domestic public opinion and the international community's expectations for the stability and peace of the Taiwan Strait region.

論文摘要 I
Abstract II
致謝 IV
序 VII
目錄 VIII
表目錄 IX
第壹章 緒論 1
第貳章 文獻回顧 6
第一節 戰爭的起源 6
第二節 戰爭的型態 8
第三節 戰爭支持度與政治傾向等其他因素之關聯性 10
第參章 資料來源與變數說明 15
第二節 變數說明 16
第三節 敘述統計分析 17
第肆章 實證分析與討論 22
第一節 實證模型設定 22
第二節 中國為統一武力犯台的實證結果 23
第三節 台灣宣佈獨立的實證結果 24
第伍章 結論與建議 27
第一節 結論 27
第二節 政策建議 28
第三節 研究限制與未來研究方向 29
參考文獻 31

表目錄
表1: 民調受訪者所屬縣市分布統計 33
表2: 變數說明 34
表3: 解釋變數敘述統計 35
表4: 中國武力統一台灣與台灣民眾為保衛台灣參戰意願之迴歸結果 37
表5: 台灣宣佈獨立引發中國犯台與台灣民眾為保衛參戰意願之迴歸結果 39

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