央行房市信用管制政策對於房地產市場的影響一直是學術界和市場關注的焦點。本研究目的在探討央行房市信用管制政策以及實價登錄2.0與房地合一稅制的實施對於不動產代銷業股價的影響，本研究將以上市不動產代銷公司為主要研究對象，並採用事件研究法探討在2015年至2022年期間相關政策的實施對於不動產代銷業股價的影響程度，利用GARCH(1,1)的異常報酬估計模式及橫斷面標準差檢定法(Cross-sectional standard deviation test)得到的實證結果顯示：在央行宣布房市鬆綁或緊縮政策時，事件期內的平均異常報酬率及平均累積異常報酬率僅有部份有明顯正向或負向的顯著性，而在央行單純宣布降息與升息而無直接對購屋的貸放條件進行管制的事件中，平均異常報酬率及平均累積異常報酬之統計結果皆不顯著。在實價登錄與房地合一稅制的三讀通過與實施的事件中，事件日當天平均異常報酬率雖多為負值，但平均異常報酬及平均累積異常報酬在事件期間卻僅有部份事件日產生負向顯著性平均累積異常報酬。

The impact of the Central Bank's credit control policy on the real estate market has always been a focus of academic and market attention. The purpose of this study is to explore the impact of the Central Bank's housing credit control policy, as well as the implementation of the 2.0 version of the real-price registration system and the real estate and land tax system, on the stock prices of real estate agency companies. This study focuses on listed real estate agency companies as the main research subjects and uses event study methodology to investigate the impact of relevant policies on the stock prices of real estate agency companies from 2015 to 2022. The empirical results obtained through the abnormal return estimation model of GARCH(1,1) and cross-sectional standard deviation test show that when the central bank announces loosening or tightening policies for the housing market, only some of the average abnormal return rates and average cumulative abnormal return rates during the event period are significantly positive or negative. In events where the central bank simply announces interest rate cuts or hikes without directly controlling the lending conditions for home purchases, the statistical results of the average abnormal return rates and average cumulative abnormal returns are not significant. In events related to the passage and implementation of the real-price registration and real estate and land tax system, the average abnormal return rate on the event day is mostly negative, but only some event days during the event period show significant negative abnormal returns and cumulative abnormal returns.

摘要
目錄
第一章 緒論---6
第二章 文獻回顧---10
第三章 實證方法---17
第四章 實證統計結果分析---28
第五章 結論與研究限制及建議---45
參考文獻---48

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