本文運用制度比較、金額設算及數量分析工具探討台灣老年經濟保障政策，比較公私部門退休保障的世代差異，並就2018年針對公部門員工(包含公務人員與公立教師)年金改革對終身退休給付淨額、儲蓄及消費行為的影響進行分析。透過對代表性個人之終身退休金繳費、給付及其淨值的設算，我們發現在年金改革前，隨著出生世代的後移，公部門員工的退休給付淨額已有下降趨勢，但仍明顯優於私部門員工。2018年金改革大幅降低了公部門退休給付淨額，且越晚出生的世代，其退休給付淨額下降的幅度越明顯。公、私部門退休給付淨額的差異隨之近乎消弭，惟公立教師因可退休年齡較早，故其終身退休給付淨值仍優於公務人員與勞工。

在迴歸分析方面，我們使用2種模型估計年金改革對家戶儲蓄及消費的影響。首先，DID模型顯示年金改革後公部門員工儲蓄率顯著上升0.856百分點，而醫藥保健類、娛樂類、雜項類消費則顯著下降；另外，我們以設算的個人終身退休給付淨額及其因年金改革造成的變動作為主要解釋變數進行迴歸分析(NPW模型)，其結果顯示退休給付淨額對儲蓄率有顯著的負向影響。其中，年改前個人終身退休給付淨額每降低1元，家戶年儲蓄會提高約0.2元，而當終身退休給付淨額因年金改革而減少1元，儲蓄則增加約0.1元，且醫藥保健類、娛樂類消費隨之顯著下降。

This paper investigates the old-age economic security systems in Taiwan by means of institutional comparisons, benefit simulation and quantitative analysis. We explore the differences in government mandated retirement provisions across generations and between the public and private sectors, and we analyze the impact of the 2018 Public Pension Reform (which influenced the civil servants and public school teachers) on lifetime net pension wealth, savings, and consumption behavior of the program participants. By calculating the lifetime program contributions, benefits, and net pension wealth for the representative individuals, we find that before the pension reform, the net pension wealth for the public-sector workers had decreased in younger generations, though still greater than the private-sector counterparts. The 2018 Public Pension Reform greatly reduced the net pension wealth for the public-sector workers, and the reduction was markedly greater for younger generations. Subsequently, the gap in net retirement benefits between the public sector and the private sectors largely dimished. An exception is the public school teachers; they are entitled to an earlier normal retirement age under the post-reform law and thus greater net pension wealth compared to the private-sector workers and general civil servants.

In our regression analysis, two models are employed to estimate the effects of the 2018 Pension Reform on household saving and consumption. Firstly, the DID model shows that the pension reform led to a significant increase in household saving rate for the public-sector employees by 0.856 percentage point, and the household consumption in healthcare, entertainment, and miscellaneous expenses significantly decreased. Furthermore, we estimate a regression model using the simulated net pension wealth (NPW) and the changes in NPW caused by the 2018 Pension Reform as potential determinants for household saving and consumption. The results suggest that net pension wealth had significant and negative effects on household savings. Specifically, a lower level of baseline net pension wealth by 1 New Taiwanese Dollar (TWD) was associated with greater annual household saving by about 0.2 TWD. In contrast, a 1 TWD reduction in net pension wealth due to the 2018 reform would lead to an increase in annual household saving by about 0.1 TWD; in the meantime, household consumption in healthcare and entertainment would significantly decrease.

摘要...........................................................1
Ⅰ 導論.........................................................4
Ⅱ 文獻回顧.....................................................6
Ⅲ 台灣養老、退休年制度及年金改革簡介............................10
Ⅲ.1世界年金概況、政府需要設立年金理由...........................10
Ⅲ.2退休金制度收取保費的方式....................................12
Ⅲ.3退休金制度支付保費的方式....................................13
Ⅲ.4美國的老年經濟保障制度介紹..................................14
Ⅲ.5勞工老年經濟保障制度........................................15
Ⅲ.6公部門員工老年經濟保障制度..................................17
Ⅲ.7 2018年公部門員工年金改革實施的措施..........................21
Ⅲ.8私立教職員職業退休金........................................25
Ⅲ.9美國與台灣社會保險比較......................................26
Ⅲ.10美國與台灣補充退休保障制度比較..............................28
Ⅳ 年金改革對退休給付的影響: 公保/退、勞保/退終身保費與給付淨額設算 31
Ⅳ.1A 終身給付淨額公式..........................................31
Ⅳ.1B公務人員福利領取...........................................33
Ⅳ.1C私部門勞工福利領取.........................................38
Ⅳ.2參數假設...................................................41
Ⅳ.3設算結果...................................................54
V 年金改革對儲蓄消費的影響: 迴歸分析.............................58
Ⅴ.1資料介紹與敘述統計...........................................58
Ⅴ.2迴歸實證分析：DID模型 .......................................69
Ⅴ.3迴歸實證分析：終身退休給付淨額模型 ...........................79
Ⅵ 結論........................................................89
參考文獻.......................................................91

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