隨著科技進步帶動工業與經濟快速發展下，各產業所使用、運作之各類化學 物質也日益增加，卻可能因為操作失誤、設備失修、其他不可控或非人為因素造 成毒物化學災害事故頻繁，除了對生命與財產造成威脅，也可能污染環境;特別 是高危害性毒性化學物質發生外洩將可能擴散至鄰近環境而造成重大災害。目前 的災害處理和救援疏散部分仰賴決策者的經驗進行，雖有決策工具可使用，但是 毒化災為較特別的災害類型，若發生大規模的毒化物洩漏災害時，仍希望可以提 供可靠且有效的工具作為輔助。因此，本研究透過建立疏散模擬模型作為決策者 制定策略的參考及輔助，將目標範圍的路網分割成多個細胞，以細胞傳輸模型和 車流模型分別模擬人口以及車輛疏散時的情況，人口和車輛的移動情形則以細胞 之間的流動表示，同時加入人口及車輛的選擇行為代表現實疏散行動的隨機性， 透過本研究提出的模型協助決策者進行適當的災害應變，降低大規模毒化災害所 帶來的損失。
本研究以高雄市燕巢區作為個案研究的對象，將探討在該地發生大規模毒
化物洩漏時，風向、集結點設置以及其他相關因素對於整個疏散系統的影響，
並提出一個新的集結點選擇方法，根據該方法選出之集結點組合與現有設置進
行比較，前者減少約百分之二十的集結避難時間，並且在車輛疏散階段減少百
分之十的交通阻塞率。

With the rapid development of industry and economy driven by scientific and technological progress, chemical substances used and operated in various industries are also increasing day by day, but often due to human negligence, equipment failure or other uncontrollable factors, frequent toxic and chemical disasters occur. Life and property are threatened, and the environment may also be polluted; especially the leakage of highly hazardous and toxic chemical substances may spread to the adjacent environment and cause major disasters. The current disaster rescue and evacuation partly rely on the experience of decision-makers. Although there are decision-making tools available, poisoning disasters are a relatively special type of disaster. If a large- scale poisoning chemical leakage disaster occurs, it is necessary that reliable and effective tools as an aid. Therefore, by establishing an evacuation simulation model as a reference and assistance for decision makers to formulate strategies, this study divides the road network in the target range into multiple cells, and uses the cell transport model and the traffic flow model to simulate the population and vehicle evacuation respectively. The movement of vehicles is represented by the flow between cells. At the same time, the selection behavior of population and vehicles represents the randomness of evacuation actions in reality. Through the model proposed in this study, it assists decision makers in appropriate disaster response and reduces large-scale poisoning disasters the resulting losses.

摘要................................................................................................................................ I
Abstract........................................................................................................................II
圖目錄......................................................................................................................... IV
表目錄........................................................................................................................ VII
第一章 緒論..................................................................................................................1
1.1 研究背景與動機.................................................................................................1 1.2 研究目的.............................................................................................................2 1.3 論文架構.............................................................................................................3
第二章 文獻回顧..........................................................................................................5
2.1 災害管理.............................................................................................................5 2.2 氣體擴散軟體發展與研究用途.........................................................................6 2.3 模擬模型分類.....................................................................................................7 2.4 疏散行為模擬方法.............................................................................................9
第三章 疏散模擬模型................................................................................................11 3.1 人口避難階段....................................................................................................12
3.2 車輛避難階段...................................................................................................18
第四章 個案探討........................................................................................................25
4.1 不同集結點組合之比較和因子對避難時間之影響.......................................26 4.2 不同集結點組合於車輛疏散階段的阻塞情形分析.......................................45
第五章 結論與建議....................................................................................................52 參考文獻...................................................................................................................... 54

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