當地震或是其他災害發生時，災後的物資會成為稀缺資源，政府作為決策者，
迅速且有效地決策與規劃物資的派送路線，可以降低災民的焦慮、民眾的傷亡以
及災後秩序的混亂。所以減災、備災，以及災後的應變是災害管理的重要議題。
災害具有突發、不可預料以及重傷害的特性，使災後的運輸網路有大量不確定性
因子，例如：災後道路的失效以及物資需求，增添物資分配問題的複雜性，造成
管理供應鏈困難。
本研究提出一個二階段隨機混整數規劃模型，建構一個在時間限制下的物資
配送架構，以求解物資集散地的位置與開設數、所需車輛數、車輛路徑以及其運
送物資量的最佳決策問題，以利用模擬最佳化方法求解最小化成本。此外，亦設
計一組合式演算法來求解。演算法以樣本平均近似法為基礎，透過隨機抽樣的方
式將隨機參數轉換成大量情境值，將隨機混整數規劃模型轉化為可求解的確定性
混整數規劃模型，並且以位址快速篩選法以及分配巢狀分割法來解決此問題。最
後，本研究使用國家災害防救科技中心（National Science and Technology Center
for Disaster Reduction, NCDR）之資料，進行實證研究，除了尋找出影響成本的重
要因子外，也分析在不同情境下車輛配置數與開設位址的最佳決策，提供決策者
災後物資分配的實務參考，使本研究在降低災民脆弱度上有所貢獻。

During times of earthquakes or other disasters, the availability of post-disaster supplies becomes scarce, leading to anxiety among victims, casualties, and chaotic conditions in the aftermath. To alleviate these concerns, the government plays a crucial role as the decision-maker by swiftly and effectively planning the delivery routes for supplies. However, the unpredictable and severe nature of disasters introduces significant uncertainty into the post-disaster transport network. This uncertainty encompasses road failures and fluctuating supply demands, thereby increasing the complexity of managing the supply chain distribution problem. In this study, we propose a two-stage stochastic mixed-integer planning model aimed at developing a time-constrained distribution structure. The model aims to solve the optimal decision problem concerning the location and quantity of distribution sites, the required number of vehicles, the vehicle routes, and the number of supplies to be delivered while minimizing costs. Also, an algorithm is developed, which employs a sample-average approximation method with utilizing rapid location procedure and Nested Partitions-based Allocation Procedure.

Overall, this study contributes to the field of disaster management by presenting a comprehensive planning model and algorithm for post-disaster supply chain distribution. We conduct an empirical study using data from the National Science and Technology Center for Disaster Reduction (NCDR). The empirical analysis based on this real data helps identify important factors and informs optimal decisions on vehicle allocation and site selection, providing practical guidance for post-disaster material allocation. By addressing the challenges posed by uncertain post-disaster conditions, we aim to enhance the efficiency of resource allocation in the aftermath of disasters.

摘要 I
Abstract II
目錄 III
圖目錄 V
表目錄 VI
第一章 緒論 1
1.1研究背景與動機 1
1.2研究目的 2
1.3論文計畫書架構 2
第二章 文獻回顧 4
2.1災害管理 4
2.2人道主義物流與優化指標 5
2.3人道主義物流中的物流中心設址問題 6
第三章 數學模型 8
3.1問題定義 8
3.2符號定義 9
3.3數學模型 11
第四章　研究方法 16
4.1模擬模型建構 17
4.1.1路網設計 17
4.1.2路網失效估計 19
4.1.3旅行時間估計 20


4.2 模擬最佳化演算法 21
4.2.1樣本平均近似法與最優計算量分配的樣本平均近似法 22
4.2.2快速選址法 24
4.2.3分配巢狀分割法 25
第五章　數值實驗 28
5.1路網情境說明 28
5.2 數值設定 29
5.3針對二水準部分因子設計實驗 32
5.3.1估計成本結果與分析 33
5.3.2剝奪成本結果與分析 36
5.4演算法比較 37
第六章　實證研究 40
6.1時間限制之比較 40
6.2地震規模之比較 42
第七章　結論與未來研究 44
參考文獻 46

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