Twinkle太空望遠鏡將監測眾多擁有系外行星的恆星，透過觀測其發生的行星凌星現象，以研究系外行星的大氣層及獲得高精度的凌星時間中點。為了了解未來的Twinkle太空望遠鏡凌星數據，是否能提昇行星質量的測量精確度，我們以高斯光子雜訊模擬出Twinkle的合成光變曲線，並研究從光變曲線擬合中影響凌星時間中點的誤差來源。已知擁有兩顆行星的K2-21行星系統被用來作為分析例子。這些結果將有助於未來Twinkle在選擇與安排觀測目標和計劃上。

Twinkle Space Telescope will monitor numerous planet-hosting stars during their planet transit events in order to investigate the exoplanet atmospheres and obtain high-precision transit timings. To understand how much the uncertainty of planetary masses of multi-planet systems can be narrowed down by the future Twinkle transit data, the synthetic Twinkle light curves with Gaussian photon noise are generated. The sources of error in mid-transit time derived from light-curve fitting are studied. K2-21 planetary system with two planets is employed as an example. These results will be helpful for Twinkle target selection and observation planning.

Contents . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ii
List of Tables . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . iii
List of Figures. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . v

1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1

2 Data . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
2.1 Twinkle Stardrive - Planet’s Catalog Database . . . . . . 6
2.2 The Planetary System: K2-21 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7

3 Methods . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
3.1 Generating Synthetic Light Curves . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
3.1.1 Observable Times . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
3.1.2 Passbands . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
3.1.3 Exposure Times . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
3.1.4 Data Binning Sizes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
3.1.5 The Mid-Transit Time Fitting . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
3.2 The Modeling of the Transit-Timing-Variation . . . . . . . 19
3.2.1 Model Descriptions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
3.2.2 Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods. . . . . . . . . . . . . 22

4 Results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
4.1 Synthetic Light Curves of K2-21 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
4.2 The Transit-Timing-Variation of K2-21 . . . . . . . . . . 31

5 Conclusions & FutureWorks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38
5.1 Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38
5.2 FutureWorks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40

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