2021 年《格拉斯哥氣候公約》明定在 2050 年實現淨零碳排放，各個國家面對氣候變遷的問題，首要目標就是要降低二氧化碳排放，對抗全球暖化。因此，發展電動車是許多國家欲求解決碳排放問題的策略選擇。在這銳不可檔的趨勢下，丹麥哥本哈根市、法國巴黎、德國漢堡等地甚至已經公布禁止非電動車上路的預計執行年份及區域，由此不難想像不久的未來，電動車將全面取代燃油車。而 TESLA 為全球電動車第一大廠，在各國推動燃油車轉型為電動車的政策下，TESLA 電動車產量以及銷售數量都連年創下新高紀錄，公司股價及市值也接連創造驚奇寫下新的紀錄，成為了各國資金追捧的對象，公司執行長 Elon Musk 也因此成為了全球首富，本篇論文的研究動機及目的即是想運用高登模型 (Gordon Model)、資本資產定價模型 (Capital Asset Pricing Model, CAPM)、加權平均資金成本 (weighted average cost of capital, WACC) 及現金流量折現法 (Discounted Cash Flow Model, DCF)，並使用國際能源署發布之2021年全球電動汽車展望報告，其內容所假設之兩種情境，分別為 The Stated Policies Scenario (既定政策情境，STEPS) 與 The Sustainable Development Scenario (碳中和情境，SDS)，評估作為全球電動車廠龍頭的 TESLA，基於電動車產業的未來趨勢下，合理的股價評價。

The Glasgow Climate Pact in 2021 explicitly aims to achieve net zero emissions by 2050, and the primary goal of all countries facing the problem of climate change is to reduce carbon dioxide emissions and combat global warming. Therefore, the development of electric vehicles is the strategic choice of many countries to solve the problem of carbon emissions. With this unstopped tendency, the city of Copenhagen, the French city of Paris, and the German city of Hamburg have even announced the expected year and area of enforcement for banning non-electric vehicles from the road. It can be seen that in the near future, electric vehicles will completely replace fuel vehicles. TESLA is the world's largest manufacturer of electric vehicles. With the policy of promoting the conversion of fuel vehicles to electric vehicles, TESLA has been producing and selling electric vehicles at record highs year after year, and the company's stock price and market value have also set new records and become the target of pursuit of funds from all over the world. Elon Musk, the CEO of the company, has also become the richest man in the world. The research motivation and purpose of this paper is to explore the use of Gordon Model, Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), weighted average cost of capital (WACC) and Discounted Cash Flow Model (DCF), and use the Global Electric Vehicle Outlook 2021 released by IEA, which assumes two scenarios, The Stated Policies Scenario and The Sustainable Development Scenario to evaluate TESLA as the world's leading electric vehicle manufacturer, based on the future trend of the electric vehicle industry, a reasonable stock price evaluation.

第一章、緒論 1
第一節、研究背景與動機 1
第二節、研究目的與方法 2
第三節、研究流程 3
第二章、文獻探討 4
第一節、新能源車種類介紹 4
第二節、電動車發展歷史 6
第三節、電動車近年概況 7
第四節、 TESLA 簡介 12
第五節、企業價值評估及現金流量折現法文獻回顧 13
第三章、研究方法 15
第一節、研究方法 15
第二節、模擬情境介紹 15
第三節、計量模型與估計方法 16
第四章、研究結果 20
第一節、 TESLA 當前市占率之評估結果 20
第二節、 TESLA 調整市占率之評估結果 28
第五章、結論與建議 37
附錄 1、 TESLA 資產負債表 39
附錄 2、 TESLA 綜合損益表 40
附錄 3、 TESLA 現金流量表 41
參考文獻 42

1. 吳啟銘 (2000)，「現金流量折現法的應用與限制」，金融研訓院。
2. 美國能源署，
https://www.energy.gov/timeline/timeline-history-electric-car。
3. 維基百科-電動車，
https://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E7%94%B5%E5%8A%A8%E6%B1%BD%E8%BD%A6。
4. 維基百科- TESLA，
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla,_Inc.#Board_of_directors。
5. 聯合國-氣候行動，https://www.un.org/en/climatechange。
6. Bancel, F., & Mittoo, U. R. (2014), “The Gap between Theory and Practice of Firm Valuation: Survey of European Valuation Experts.” Working Paper.
7. Brennan, M. (1971), “A Note on Dividend Irrelevance and the Gordon Valuation Model.” The Journal of Finance, Vol. 26(No. 5), 1115–1121.
8. Canalys,
https://canalys.com/newsroom/global-electric-vehicle-market-2021。
9. Damodaran, A. (2006), “Valuation Approaches and Metrics: A Survey of the Theory and Evidence.” Working Paper.
10. Fernandez, P. (2001), “Valuation using multiples. How do analysts reach their conclusions?” SSRN Electronic Journal, 1-3.
11. Jagannathan, R., Wang, W. (1996), “The Conditional CAPM and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns.” Journal of Finance, 51, 3–53.
12. John Burr Williams. (1938), “The Theory of Investment Value.” Working Paper.
13. Kruschwitz, L., & Loffler, A. (2006), “Discounted Cash Flow: A Theory of the Valuation Firms.” John Wileys & Sons, Inc.
14. Luehrman, T.A. (1997), “What Is It Worth? A General Manager’s Guide to Valuation,” Harvard Business Review, 75, 131-142.
15. OECD, report. (2021),
https://www.oecd.org/sdd/na/GDP-Growth-Q421.pdf。
16. Shanken, J., (1990), “Intertemporal Asset Pricing: An Empirical Investigation,” Journal of Econometrics, 45, 99-120.
17. Tesla, https://ir.tesla.com/#tab-quarterly-disclosure。
18. Vernimmen, P., Quiry, P., Dallocchio, M., Fur, Y. L., & Salvi, A, (2005), Corporate Finance: Theory and Practice. New York.