2020 年全世界在新冠肺炎 (coronavirus，以下簡稱 COVID-19) 疫情肆虐之下，整個航空業受疫情的衝擊劇烈，然而隨著疫情持續延燒，國內的國籍航空公司卻還能在這動盪不安的局勢下創造營收。其中，中華航空股份有限公司 (以下簡稱華航) 的股價更是在疫情期間創下歷史新高。因此，本研究欲探討華航股價是否受到 COVID-19 疫情因子的影響。文中使用了 50 種會影響航空股價的因子，其中包括發生 COVID-19 疫情前後的因子，先以 Lasso 模型 (least absolute shrinkage and selection operator) 找出與華航股價最相關的變數，再以多元線性迴歸方式建立模型，估計出樣本外資料，最後用均方誤差 (mean square error，簡稱 MSE) 比較結果。本研究的實證結果發現，疫情發生後Lasso 選出的因子對華航股價有顯著的影響，並且疫情發生後的 MSE 比未發生疫情前更小，表示華航股價的預測會受到疫情的影響。最後，許多報章雜誌報導 COVID-19 疫情期間華航的貨運營收為股價屢創佳績的主要因素。但從實證結果顯示，華航的貨運收入和華航股價並沒有顯著關係，反而是華航營運收入成長率和股價有顯著的正向關係。

Since December 2019, a new type of coronavirus called novel coronavirus (COVID-19) was identified in Wuhan City, Hubei Province of China. The COVID-19 has rapidly spread all over the world. After recognizing it as an emergency epidemic, countries around the world have taken drastic measures, including full lockdowns, imposing travel restrictions and completely sealing their borders, in an attempt to curb COVID-19. The devastating and unprecedented impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on the airport industry and the entire air transportation are well-known. The result is a sharp fall in those airlines’ revenues. Nevertheless, China Airlines and EVA Airlines, which are international airlines in Taiwan, can still raising their profits during this period. Especially China Airlines’ stock price hits new high during the epidemic. Accordingly, this paper examines the impact of COVID-19 on stock price of China Airlines. This empirical approach considers a multiple linear regression model with more than 50 variables recognized to be important for airlines stock returns. To choose important variables, we use least absolute shrinkage and selection operator model. After comparing the mean squared error (MSE) with several models, we find that COVID-19 have significantly effect on stock returns of China Airlines.

1. 前言…………………………………………………………………1
2. 文獻回顧………………………………………………………3
3. 資料與研究方法.………………………………………6
4. 實證結果………………………………………………………14
5. 結論…………………………………………………………………20
參考文獻……………………………………………………………………………22
附錄………………………………………………………………………………………26

中文參考文獻
1. 王裕仁 (2009)，「匯率、油價、金價、利率之關聯性探討與預測」，碩士論文，台南市：國立成功大學財務金融學系研究所。
2. 肖佳 (2012)，「BDI 與航運上市公司的股票價格關係—基於航運上市公司的面板數據分析」，《財務與金融》, 5, 17-21。
3. 翁英鐘 (2016)，「航空油價格預測之研究」，碩士論文，台北市：國防大學運籌管理學系研究所。
4. 陳肇安 (2005)，「台灣運輸類股指數與 BDI 等國內外相關指數連動性之探討」，碩士論文，高雄：中山大學財務管理學系研究所。
5. 莊皓潔 (2009)，「油價與航空公司營運績效相關之研究」，碩士論文，新北市：國立臺灣海洋大學航運管理學系研究所。
6. 黃鈺軒 (2019)，「原油價格與市場情緒對運輸類股價之影響」，碩士論文，新北市：國立臺灣海洋大學航運管理學系研究所。
7. 楊志峰 (2015)，「公司重大事故與股價反應之研究：以臺灣的航空公司為例」，碩士論文，嘉義縣：南華大學企業管理系管理科學研究所。
8. 劉淳毅 (2016)，「航空燃油價格與上市國籍航空公司股價長期關係之研究」，碩士論文，高雄：國立高雄應用科技大學企業管理學系研究所。
9. 蕭喆謙 (2012)，「油價與國內航空公司營運績效相關性之研究」，碩士論文，台北：東吳大學企業管理學系研究所。
10. 謝一偵 (2021)，「COVID-19 疫情對全球航空產業營運之影響—以中華航空為例」，碩士論文，桃園：國立中央大學財務金融學系研究所。
11. 簡彣如 (2013)，「海運市場運價與原油價格之相互關係」，碩士論文，新北市：國立臺灣海洋大學航運管理學系研究所。
12. 羅杰與敖小琴 (2008)，「透過航空公司來看石油时代」，《考試周刊》, 46, 237-238。

英文參考文獻
1. Blunk, S. S., Clark, D. E., & McGibany J. M. (2006), “Evaluating the Long-Run Impacts of the 9/11 Terrorist Attacks on US Domestic Airline Travel,” Applied Economics, 38, 363-370.
2. Chen, M. P., Lee, C. C., Lin, Y. H., & Chen, W. Y. (2018), “Did the SARS Epidemic Weaken the Integration of Asian Stock Markets? Evidence from Smooth Time-Varying Cointegration Analysis,” Economic Research, 31, 908-926.
3. Dickley, D. A. & W. A. Fuller. (1979), “Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root,” Journal of American Statisitical Association, 74, 427-431.
4. Dickley, D. A. & W. A. Fuller. (1981), “Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root,” Econometrica, 49, 1057-1072.
5. Gordon, P., Moore, J. E., Park, J. Y., & Richardson, H. W. (2007), “The Economic Impacts of a Terrorist Attack on the US Commercial Aviation System,” Risk Analysis, 27, 505-512.
6. Granger, C. W., & Newbold, P. (1974), “Spurious Regressions in Econometrics,” Journal of Econometrics, 2, 111-120.
7. Horobet, A., Zlatea, M. L. E., Belascu, L., & Dumitrescu, D. G. (2022), “Oil Price Volatility and Airlines’ Stock Returns: Evidence from the Global Aviation Industry,” Journal of Business Economics and Management, 23, 284-304.
8. Harvey, G., & Turnbull P. (2009), “The Impact of the Financial Crisis on Labour in the Civil Aviation Industry,” International Labour Organization.
9. Phillips, P. C., & Perron, P. (1998), “Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression,” Biometrika, 75, 335-346.
10. Şenol, Z., & Zeren, F. (2020), “Coronavirus (COVID-19) and Stock Markets: The Effects of the Pandemic on the Global Economy.” Avrasya Sosyal ve Ekonomi Araştırmaları Dergisi, 7, 1-16.
11. Suau-Sanchez, P., Voltes-Dorta, A., & Cugueró-Escofet, N. (2020), “An Early Assessment of the Impact of COVID-19 on Air Transport: Just another Crisis or the End of Aviation as We Know it?” Journal of Transport Geography, 86, 102749.
12. Sun, X., Wandelt, S., Zheng, C., & Zhang, A. (2021), “COVID-19 Pandemic and Air Transportation: Successfully Navigating the Paper Hurricane,” Journal of Air Transport Management, 94, 102062.
13. Tisdall, L., Zhang, Y., & Zhang, A. (2021), “COVID-19 Impacts on General Aviation-Comparative Experiences, Governmental Responses and Policy Imperatives,” Transport Policy, 110, 273-280.
14. Tibshirani, R. (1996), “Regression Shrinkage and Selection via the Lasso,” Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, 58, 267-288.
15. Kristjanpoller, W. D., & Concha, D. (2016), “Impact of Fuel Price Fluctuations on Airline Stock Returns,” Applied Energy, 178, 496-504.
16. Zeren, F., & Hizarci, A. (2020), “The Impact of COVID-19 Coronavirus on Stock Markets: Evidence from Selected Countries,” Muhasebe ve Finans İncelemeleri Dergisi, 3, 78-84.