二退在大學裡是個有損效率的程序, 前提是我們只在乎盡早畢業且認為沒轉換成學
分的努力是毫無意義的。但是, 這系統在大學中提供學生多元選課與自我挑戰的動機。
我們注重學生視角的分析, 使用轉系, 就學貸款, 社經地位, 大學生活環境, 父母教育
程度, 與院所作為因素, 應用多元概率比, 負二項與卜瓦松模型來觀測各狀態對二退行為
的影響。再者, 我們將GPA作為一個很重要的元素, 因為清華有二一退學的機制。除了
以上的變數, 我們還加入來自問券的一些指標, 比如說學習習慣, 入學動機, 同儕影響,
配上基本的BIC模型選擇方法, 來避免每區塊問券的系統性問題, 最後再以選出來的做
一次整體的BIC, 來看整區域是否有效。
在清華的規定與學生池下, 我們發現第一學期有50%學生退選, 然後隨著時間過去,
每學期減少一半。而且, 我們觀察到退選的減少並不伴隨著GPA增加或完成的學分數提
升。同時, 我們也觀測到少於0.5%的二退常客(常客:前三年每學期至少退一門)。再者,
我們發現經歷過某學期無二退的學生, 未來永不再二退(大學四年)。
在眾多雜亂因果中, 我們發現學院, GPA效果超群；性別, 學習習慣, 動機, 與同儕效
果顯著但規模不大。雙主修與轉系皆為正向但一樣大小不及前兩個, “花費在其他活動
的小時數” 也是。
最後, 我們發現二退多的人, 相較於二退少的, 畢業後有較低機率選擇直接就業, 較
高機率選擇進修碩博士。

Course withdrawal has been an inefficient program for university, under restricted
value such as fast completion or no wasted effort. However, it provides course shopping
or self-challenging motivations for students in university.
We focus on student side and add factors such as changing department, repaying
loan, economic status, social status, living environment, parents’ education, and students’
college into probit, negative binomial, and poisson model to determine how much each
factor affects course withdrawal decision. In addition, we view GPA level as an important
factor, since failing half of the credits imposes a risk of being expelled. We have several
indicators for study habit, motivation, and peer effect categories, therefore we use BIC
to select indicator for each category, followed by an extra BIC selection afterwards for
categorical relevance in our data.
Under National TsingHua University’s regulations and student pool, we find 50% of
the students drop in the first semester and it decreases by roughly 1/2 over each semester,
and we examine the reduction of course withdrawal isn’t followed by the increase of GPA
or completed credit. We also see very little system abusers(0.5 %), which is defined by
dropping at least a course every semester in the first 3 years. We further find students
that experience a semester without course withdrawal, never drop again.
The strongest effects among all factors are college, and GPA. Gender, study habit,
motivation, and peer effect is significant but low scaling. Double major and changing department
serve positive sign but low scaling, as well as “Hours spent on other activities”.
At last, we see higher portion of students in the group of non-droppers decide to join
the job market right after graduation compared to students that have dropped in their
university life.

1 Introduction 3
2 Field Review 6
2.1 Generic Logic . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
2.2 School side . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
2.2.1 Department and courses . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
2.2.2 Grading Style . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
2.2.3 University Features . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
2.3 Student side . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
2.3.1 Gender . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
2.3.2 Study Habits . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
2.3.3 Time inconsistency . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
2.3.4 Parents’ effect . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
2.3.5 Peer effect . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
2.3.6 Well-Being, Motivation & Pressure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20
2.4 Online Courses . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22
2.5 Environment outside of school . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22
3 Data & Method 23
3.1 Observation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24
3.2 Variable . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24
3.3 Models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26
4 Results 27
4.1 Descriptive Statistics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27
4.1.1 Course withdrawal over time . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27
4.1.2 Changing department, Double Major, Minor . . . . . . . . . . . . 29
4.1.3 GPA,Department & Colleges . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30
4.1.4 Admission Method . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32
1
4.2 Overall Model: Probit and Negative Binomial . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32
4.2.1 Probit . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34
4.2.2 Negative Binomial & Poisson . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39
4.3 Where Droppers go . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42
5 Conclusion 46
Appendices 54
List of Tables
1 Descriptive Statistics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27
2 Probit Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37
5 Continue . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38
3 Negative Binomial & Poisson Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41
3 Continue . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42
4 Plan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43
5 Location for Advanced Study . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44
6 Multinomial Logit . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46

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