近年香港出現威權化現象，主要集中在選舉、法治、傳媒和公民社會四個範疇。隨著全球民主素質的倒退，學者愈來愈關注相關現象，並提出「威權化」（autocratization）概念來描述第三波民主化後出現的倒退。根據V-Dem選舉和自由民主指數，顯示香港近十年狀況符合威權化標準。香港威權化可以歸因於中國的威權促進（autocracy promotion）和威權擴散（autocracy diffusion）。本文運用「中國效應電話調查」2016至2020年合共五年數據，嘗試分析威權化的背景下對香港社會政體偏好的影響，以及五種導致威權擴散的潛在原因，包括國族認同、與中國的社會接觸、對中國市場重要性的判斷、對中國未來發展的信心，以及是否受惠於中港經濟關係。研究結果顯示香港社會整體在威權化下支持威權政體的機會顯著減少，絕大部分受訪者支持民主政體的預測機率都有所增加，有別於其他威權化案例。在威權擴散方面，國族認同、對中國未來發展有信心，以及認為家庭和香港整體受惠於中港經濟關係發展，會顯著增加受訪者支持威權政體的機會。香港威權化案例突顯外部威權化因素的重要性及其影響力、中國促使其他政體威為威權政體的能力和意圖，以及香港作為威權政體的民主韌性。

The symptoms of the election, the rule of law, media and civil society show the autocratization trend in Hong Kong. As the quality of global democracy regresses, scholars focus on and propose the concept of autocratization as the pattern of backsliding after the third wave of democratization. According Electoral Democracy Index and Liberal Democracy Index promulgated by V-Dem, Hong Kong’s situation in the last 10 years correspond to the definition and threshold of autocratization. The case of Hong Kong autocratization can be ascribed to the autocracy promotion and diffusion of China. We utilize the datum of the China Impact Survey from 2016 to 2020, to analyse how autocratizaion affects the desired regime type of Hong Kong society. Also, we will test five assumptions that derive from factors that may cause autocratic diffusion. For example, national identity, frequency of visiting China, the evaluation towards the importance of China's consumption market, confidence towards China future development and taking advantage from China-Hong Kong economic relations or not. The outcome shows that Hong Kong society decreased its support towards autocracy. The chance of supporting democracy increased can be identified, rather than reduced in other cases. National identity, confidence in China future development and the subjective beneficiary of China-Hong Kong economic relations significantly increase the chance of supporting autocracy. The case of Hong Kong autocratization shows the importance and effect of external autocratizer, China as an autocratizer and the democratic resilience of Hong Kong society.

第一章、前言及問題意識………………………………………………………………..1
（一）由民主化到威權化…………………………………………………….….3
（二）威權化理論：未知的領域………………………………………………..5
（三）威權化與香港………………………………………………………......…6
（四）章節安排…………………………………………………………………..7
第二章、文獻回顧及研究假設……………………………………………………….….8
（一）香港威權化情況…………………………………………………………..8
（二）威權化現象………………………………………………………………20
（三）威權化的源頭…………………………………………………………....22
（四）威權擴散、威權促進及其機制………………………………………....23
第三章、資料及研究方法………………………………………………………………35
（一）威權化機制和測量……………………………………………………....35
（二）威權擴散渠道及影響……………………………………………………42
第四章、研究結果………………………………………………………………………47
（一）威權促進影響……………………………………………………………47
（二）威權擴散渠道及影響……………………………………………………57
第五章、總結及討論……………………………………………………………………66
（一）研究貢獻…………………………………………………………………67
（二）研究限制…………………………………………………………………69
參考資料…………………………………………………………………………………72
附錄………………………………………………………………………………………89

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