道路網路的連通性對於災後的緊急應變行動有其無可取代的重要性。無論是疏散居民至緊急庇護所、運送傷患至醫療中心，或是分配救難物資至災區等，道路網路的連通性皆會影響救災行動的效率。以往的研究多運用解析模型分析災後路網的連通性，將一地區之道路設置相同的中斷機率，透過簡化的模型設定以方便探討災害對路網的衝擊。但真實情況為越接近地震斷層的區域，道路所受到的衝擊越劇烈。因此，本研究蒐集一地區中各路段在不同地震規模下的地表永久位移量，並運用易損性曲線計算每個路段的失效機率後，以模擬的方式建構災後路網。接著，運用滲透理論對模擬模型生成之災後路網進行連通性分析，探討的連通性議題包括不同地震規模下最大連通群集的變化、瓶頸道路的判別，以及識別一地區中所有潛在的孤島區域。於瓶頸道路與孤島區域的識別方法中，決策者可自行選擇分群演算法與訂定相關參數以配合減災政策的制定。依據其所欲配置的資源種類與資源多寡，調整合適的篩選方式以最大化資源的效益。本研究與國家災害防救科技中心合作，自中心所開發的地震衝擊資訊平台擷取道路網路與災害衝擊的大數據資料，實際將所提出之研究方法應用於台南市的路網。

Located in the circum-Pacific seismic belt and being one of the most densely populated countries in the world, Taiwan has suffered from earthquakes for years, causing considerable casualties and economic losses. Before a major earthquake occurs, understanding the potential damage and implementing appropriate disaster reduction measures can significantly reduce the impact of an earthquake. This study is conducted in collaboration with the Nation Science and Technology Center for Disaster Reduction (NCDR), using the road network data and earthquake impact data provided by the Taiwan Earthquake impact Research and Information Application platform (TERIA). We proposed a simulation model to evaluate the damage to the road network under various earthquake magnitudes, and adopt the concept of percolation theory to measure the changes in connectivity. Furthermore, we develop novel approaches to identify road bottlenecks and isolated areas through statistical methods and clustering algorithms. This study validates the feasibility of the approaches through an empirical study applied to Tainan City. The simulation results show that between earthquake magnitude 5.0 and 6.5, network connectivity decreases rapidly with a similar slope, but begins to flatten at larger magnitudes. In addition, most of the isolated areas are located in mountainous and coastal areas. The proposed method allows decision-makers to adjust algorithms and parameters so that the authorities can formulate more precise resource allocation strategies, prioritize road reinforcement plans, and improve the equity in access to emergency resources for victims.

摘要 I
Abstract II
目錄 III
圖目錄 IV
表目錄 V
第一章　緒論 1
1.1研究背景 1
1.2研究目的 2
1.3論文架構 4
第二章　文獻回顧 5
2.1災害管理 5
2.2災害管理決策支援系統 6
2.3災後運輸網路系統 8
2.4災後路網績效指標 10
第三章　研究方法 12
3.1災後路網模型 12
3.2路網連通性分析 16
3.2.1滲透理論概念與應用 16
3.2.2瓶頸道路 18
3.2.3孤島區域 20
第四章　個案探討 23
4.1災後路網模擬結果 24
4.2瓶頸道路識別結果 28
4.3孤島區域識別結果 29
第五章　結論與未來研究 35
參考文獻 38

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