縣市長選舉是展現台灣地方自治的重要體現，對於各政黨來說也是進行政治佈局的重要選舉活動，在近代選戰策略中，運用現任優勢投入資源建設鄉里展現政績，以及提供各種補助款補助特定對象及團體，如村里長、社區發展協會及經縣市政府合法立案之人民團體，藉此達到攏絡地方勢力，待下次選舉來臨前，動員縣市內民眾支持政黨推派候選人，以達到長期取得執政權的目標，新竹縣以過往的選舉結果來判斷，是屬於政治傾向重度偏藍的地區，國民黨對於新竹縣內各鄉鎮市地方勢力培植深耕已久，相當適合探討政黨給予地方團體補助對於影響選舉結果之研究標的。
本文以2011年至2018年國民黨執政期間，新竹縣政府給予各村里社區發展協會社運工作補助金額、受補助次數及各村里中高齡人口比例，並以2014年及2018年兩屆選舉結果建立迴歸分析模型，釐清前述因素對於國民黨得票率的影響。實證結果顯示，國民黨運用現任優勢對新竹縣內社區發展協會進行補助對得票率有正面影響，惟近年補助次數未與補助金額同步上升，且因黨內初選意見分歧產生的脫黨競選及陣前換將的情形，對現任優勢效果有相當程度的折損，因此除了以現任優勢提供補助提高得票率，仍應考量如何降低其他負面因素的影響，可作為各政黨制定選舉策略的參考依據。

The election of mayor is an important manifestation of Taiwan’s local self-governing, and it is also a significant election campaign to make political arrangement for political parties; In recent election strategies, the use of the incumbent advantages of investment in resources in order to build rural areas that performs political achievements, as well as the provision of various subsidies to support specific objects and groups. Civil's organization is registered legally by chief of village, community development association and municipal governments to draw local forces closely and mobilize the local people to support candidates nominated by political party that results in obtaining the goal of long-term power. As we judge the results of past elections in Hsinchu County, it is a pan-blue area with a strong political orientation, and the Kuomintang has cultivated and developed local forces in various townships and cities in Hsinchu County for a long time; therefore, it’s quite suitable for exploring the research of political parties allowing subsidies to local groups that influence the election results.
In this study, the Government of Hsinchu County offered social movement subsidies to community development associations in each village during the period of the KMT's rule from 2011 to 2018, the number of subsidies and the proportion of the elderly population in each village; regression analysis model was established to analyze the results of the 2014 and 2018 elections and clarify the impact of the above factors on the KMT's percentage of votes obtained. The empirical results showed that the KMT makes good use of the current advantages to subsidize the community development associations in Hsinchu County that create a positive impact on percentage of votes obtained; however, the number of subsidies has not increased in tandem with the amount of subsidies. Due to the differences of opinion occurred in the party's primary elections, the situation of the disengagement campaign and candidates changed has caused obvious effect of the incumbent advantages, in addition to increase the voting rate by providing subsidies, it’s necessary to consider how to reduce the impact of other negative factors and formulate election strategies for political parties.

摘要.....................................I
Abstract................................II
誌謝....................................IV
目錄.....................................V
圖目錄..................................VII
表目錄..................................VII
第一章 緒論...............................1
第二章 背景制度............................4
第一節 社區發展協會起源與現況...............4
第二節 何謂推行社運工作補助款...............6
第三節 新竹縣長2014年及2018年選情概況.......8
第三章 資料敘述及研究模型設定..............11
第一節 研究範圍、資料來源及變數定義.........11
第二節 追蹤資料迴歸模型....................13
第四章 實證分析結果與討論..................16
第一節 敘述統計分析........................16
第二節 影響現任縣長所屬政黨候選人得票率因素的實證結果...17
第五章 結論與研究限制....20
第一節 結論.............20
第二節 研究限制及未來研究方向......20
附表.............................22
參考文獻.........................34

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