本文建構都市更新案的財務評估模型及其風險分析，以一假設之個案，從建方的角度，評估都市更新案所需的各項成本、保證金，及預估開發收益，透過開發期程的各期現金流量支出與流入，並以成屋銷售、100% 預售、70% 預售，三種不同的銷售情境，建構出完整的個案財務評估模式，並使用敏感度分析，將三種不同銷售情境下的未來房價變化、營建成本變化、借款利率變化，觀察各風險因子的變化對利潤所產生的影響。在預售與成屋銷售有不同的資金成本下，分別計算出內部報酬率 (IRR) 與淨現值 (NPV)。可從中觀察出未來房價與營建成本對利潤變化皆有重要程度的影響，而未來房價變化又大於營建成本變化的影響，利率的變化對利潤的影響相對很小，其中利率使加權平均資金成本(WACC)的變化對利潤的影響大於借款利率變化的影響。此財務評估模式可供建築產業、政府部門等，在都市更新案中對財務風險管理策略擬定與評估決策時的參考。

This study aims to construct a financial evaluation model and its risk analysis for a hypothetical urban renewal case. This model is built from the perspective of constructors and simulated three scenarios: existing home sales, 100% presale and 70% presale. This comprehensive model entails a diversity of factors, including costs for evaluating urban renewal cases, deposits, estimated revenue, cash inflows and outflows in different stages of the developmental process. Besides, this financial evaluation model is supplemented with sensitivity analysis to predict the fluctuations in housing prices, construction costs and interest rates in the three scenarios, to further observe the impact of changes in risk factors on profitability. Capital needed for presale and existing home sales is different, thus, two sets of Internal Rate of Return (IRR) and Net Present Value (NPV) are calculated. The researcher observes that profitability can be significantly attributed to future housing prices and constructing costs. Given that the impact of changes in housing prices is greater than that of the constructing costs in the future, changing interest rates won’t affect profitability much. Furthermore, WACC, which could be affected by the interest rates could impact profitability more than the changing interest rates itself. This financial evaluation model could be used as a reference for the construction industry and the government in the development and evaluation of financial risk management strategies in urban renewal projects.

1. 緒論…………………………………………………………………...1
2. 文獻回顧……………………………………………………………...3
3. 研究方法……………………………………………………………...4
3.1 投資財務評估………………………………………………….....5
3.2 敏感度分析……………………….……………………….….…..6
4. 實證結果……………………………………………………………...7
4.1 假設個案之背景描述………………………………………….…7
4.2 都市更新及容積移轉評估……………………………….……... 7
4.3 財務投資評估計畫……………….……………………….…….11
4.4 都市更新投資開發風險評估……………………………….…..21
5. 結論………………………………………………………………….26
參考文獻………………………………………………………………..28
 

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5. 潘俊和 (2018)，「房價預期效果對都市更新參與者經濟效益影響之研究-以新北市為例」，博士論文，國立彰化師範大學財務金融技術學系。
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