在國際貿易中，匯率具有舉足輕重的地位。根據經濟理論，匯率升(貶)值會
造成進口上升(下降)，出口下降(上升)。除了匯率的升貶影響到貿易，匯率變動
幅度的變化是否也會影響到兩國之間的貿易，這便是我們將在本文之中深入探討
的議題。本文資料使用聯合國國際貿易標準分類(SITC，第 4 版)，將進、出口分
成了 18 個類別，2001 年至 2018 年總共 18 年的月資料，
本文實證結果發現臺灣的短期貿易，進口量有較多的產業容易受到韓圓－美
金匯率波動影響，效果正負參半；而進口份額受到台幣－美金匯率波動影響較大，
效果為正。出口量與出口份額則是容易受到台幣－美金匯率波動的影響，效果多
為正向。長期下，無論是進口或是出口，份額或量，結果皆以無顯著相關為大宗。
第三國效果的韓圓－美金匯率波動對於出口量影響效果顯著，超過一半的產業皆
有顯著相關，且皆為正相關，顯示當韓圓－美金匯率波動上升時，臺灣產業的出
口量會顯著的上升。

Exchange rate plays an important role in the international trade filed. According
to economic theory, import will be rise (decline) and export will be decline (rise)
when exchange rate appreciation (depreciation). In addition to exchange rate
fluctuations affecting trade, whether the change in exchange rate fluctuations will also
affect trade is the topic we are going to discuss in depth in this article. The data in this
article use the United Nations International Trade Standard Classification (SITC, 4th
edition), which divided imports and exports into 18 categories, with a total of 18 years
of monthly data from 2001 to 2018.
In the long run, no matter whether it is import or export, share or quantity, the
result is largely without significant correlation with the TWD－US dollar exchange
rate fluctuations. The third-country effect, Korean Won-US dollar exchange rate
fluctuations, has a significant effect on the export share and export quantity. More
than half of the industries are significantly related and are positively correlated. This
shows that when the Korean won-US dollar exchange rate fluctuation increases,
Taiwan’s industrial exports both share and export quantity will rise significantly

目錄
第一章、緒論................................................................................................................1
第二章、文獻回顧........................................................................................................4
第三章、研究方法........................................................................................................6
第一節、變數使用....................................................................................................6
第二節、模型設定....................................................................................................8
壹、追蹤資料分析(Panel Data Analysis).............................................................8
貳、單根檢定(Unit Root Test)與共整合分析(Cointegrate Analysis) .................1
參、自我迴歸遞延模型(ARDL Model)..............................................................2
第四章、實證結果與分析............................................................................................4
第一節、資料來源與處理........................................................................................4
第二節、追蹤資料估計結果....................................................................................4
第三節、共整合檢定與誤差校正模型....................................................................6
壹、單根檢定結果 ................................................................................................6
貳、貿易量(Trade Quantity)共整合檢定結果 .....................................................7
參、貿易份額(Trade Share)共整合檢定結果 ....................................................14
肆、產業貿易與匯率波動之關聯性 ..................................................................20
伍、CUSUM 與 CUSUMSQ 係數穩定性分析.................................................21
第五章、結論..............................................................................................................24
第六章、參考文獻......................................................................................................26

中文文獻
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