總要素生產力（Total factor productivity, TFP）是維持台灣經濟成長的重要來源，尤其在經濟成長後期，更凸顯TFP對經濟成長的重要性。但自1980年代起，台灣的GDP成長率和TFP成長率卻開始趨緩，1990年代後更是快速下降，因此，本文欲進一步探討影響TFP的變數中，哪些變數最能解釋台灣的TFP。本文參考Solow（1957）的架構，估計台灣1951年至2018年的總要素生產力，並從影響TFP的經濟變數中，選取與TFP相關性大的變數，應用Bai and Perron（1998, 2003a）多重結構性改變檢定，得出總要素生產力與變數的結構改變時點。研究結果顯示，TFP結構改變點為1969年、1983年、1994年和2009年，反映TFP結構點的變數有每人電力、出口占GDP、進出口占GDP、通貨膨脹、金融深度、人口密度、趕上變數（台灣與美國每人GDP比）和儲蓄率，其中，每人電力反映多數的TFP結構點，顯示電力對台灣TFP的重要性。台灣在1970年代面對金融自由化、石油危機等國際情勢與國家政策的影響下，反映1970年代末到1983年的TFP為每人電力、出口占GDP、進出口占GDP、通貨膨脹、金融深度、人口密度和儲蓄率。1980年代後，朝向經濟自由化和產業升級的邁進下，反映1990年代初期的TFP為每人電力、金融深度、人口密度和趕上變數。

Total factor productivity (TFP) is an important contributor to Taiwan’s economic growth and plays a key role in the later stages of economic growth. However, the growth of Taiwan’s GDP and TFP have declined gradually since the 1980s and declined rapidly since 1990s. Therefore, we want to explore which determinants could explain Taiwan’s TFP the best. Covering the sample from 1951 to 2018, we first estimate TFP developed by Solow (1957) and collect variables that affect TFP in the literature. Next, we apply Bai and Perron (1998, 2003a) multiple structural break test to TFP and variables that were highly correlated with TFP to get break dates. The result suggested that the break dates of TFP are 1969, 1983, 1994 and 2009. Variables that reflect TFP break dates are electricity per capita, exports to GDP, imports and exports to GDP, inflation, financial depth, population density, catch-up (the ratio of Taiwan’s GDP per capita to the United States) and savings rate. Among them, electricity per capita reflects most of break dates of TFP showing the importance of electricity to Taiwan’s TFP. In the 1970s, Taiwan faced international situations and policies, reflecting TFP from the late 1970s to 1983 are electricity per capita, exports to GDP, imports and exports to GDP, inflation, financial depth, population density and savings rate. In the 1980s and 1990s, because of economic liberalization and industrial upgrading, variables that reflect TFP in the early 1990s are electricity per capita, financial depth, population density and catch-up.

誌謝 i
摘要 ii
Abstract iii
目錄 iv
1. 緒論 1
2. 文獻回顧 4
2.1 總要素生產力 4
2.2 總要素生產力的決定要素 5
3. 研究方法 12
3.1 單根檢定 12
3.1.1 不含結構性改變下的單根檢定 12
3.1.2 含結構性改變下的單根檢定 14
3.2 多重結構性改變檢定 16
3.2.1 模型 16
3.2.2 檢定統計量 17
3.2.3 結構改變時點選擇 20
4. 資料來源與處理 21
4.1 資料來源 21
4.2 資料處理 24
5. 總要素生產力與經濟成長分析 26
5.1 台灣的總要素生產力 26
5.2 台灣經濟成長分析 27
6. 實證結果 29
6.1 相關性分析 29
6.2 單根檢定結果 31
6.3 多重結構性改變檢定結果 34
6.3.1 檢定結果 35
6.3.2 實證結果分析 37
7. 結論與討論 41
參考文獻 42
附錄 46

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網路資料
行政院經濟建設委員會（2013），「台灣經濟發展歷程與策略」，取自https：//ws.ndc.gov.tw/Download.ashx?u=LzAwMS9hZG1pbmlzdHJhdG9yLzEwL3JlbGZpbGUvNjIwOS8yMDU3OS8wMDE5ODIyXzEucGRm&n=MjAxM%2BWPsOeBo%2Be2k%2Ba%2Fn%2BeZvOWxleatt%2Beoi%2BiIh%2BetlueVpS5wZGY%3D&icon=..pdf