本文主要在研究投資人的預期心理對租金及使用者成本均衡的影響，以選擇權價值衡量租金及使用者成本間的落差。研究方法主要是修改傳統均衡模型，加入選擇權價值，並使用共整合檢定(Co-integration test)以檢測選擇權是否能反映租金及使用者成本間的短期差異。結果顯示選擇權可以反映兩者間的短期差異，使兩者間的長期均衡能被準確地估計。因此本文建議未來在從事租金及使用者成本均衡的相關研究時，波動性對均衡地影響是不可忽略地，而選擇權可以有效的衡量波動性。

This article examines the influence of investor’s expectations on the equilibrium of rents and user costs. A gap between rents and user costs is measured by an option value. Modifying the traditional equilibrium model by adding an option value, and using the co-integration test to verify whether the option value can explain the short-term gap between rents and user costs. The results show that option value can measure the short-term gap effectively that make the long-term equilibrium between rents and user costs can be more accurately estimated. Therefore, the impact of volatility on the equilibrium of rents and user costs is unignorable, and the option value can measure the volatility effectively.

摘要
目錄
1 緒論--------------------------------------1
2 文獻回顧----------------------------------3
2.1 租買理論--------------------------------3
2.2 租金及房價的關聯和均衡-------------------3
2.3 租金及房價的預期------------------------6
2.4 實質選擇權------------------------------6
2.5 小結-----------------------------------8
3 研究方法---------------------------------10
3.1 理論模型-------------------------------10
3.2 數值模擬方法----------------------------12
3.2 均衡狀態下的租金------------------------13
4 資料-------------------------------------16
5 實證方法及結果----------------------------25
5.1 實證方法-------------------------------25
5.2 實證結果-------------------------------27
5.2.1 單根撿定-----------------------------27
5.2.2 共整合檢定---------------------------27
6 結論-------------------------------------33
參考文獻-----------------------------------35

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