帳號:guest(3.144.17.207)          離開系統
字體大小: 字級放大   字級縮小   預設字形  

詳目顯示

以作者查詢圖書館館藏以作者查詢臺灣博碩士論文系統以作者查詢全國書目
作者(中文):高弘奕
作者(外文):Kao, Hung-Yi
論文名稱(中文):金融恐慌下散戶投資人之投資行為分析
論文名稱(外文):Analysis of Retail Investor's Investment Behavior Under Financial Panic
指導教授(中文):張國浩
指導教授(外文):Chang, Kuo-Hao
口試委員(中文):吳建瑋
陳子立
口試委員(外文):Wu, Chien-Wei
Chen, Tzu-Li
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:國立清華大學
系所名稱:全球營運管理碩士雙聯學位學程
學號:107039505
出版年(民國):110
畢業學年度:109
語文別:中文
論文頁數:72
中文關鍵詞:金融恐慌AHP投資行為分析
外文關鍵詞:Financial PanicAHPInvestment Behavior Analysis
相關次數:
  • 推薦推薦:0
  • 點閱點閱:187
  • 評分評分:*****
  • 下載下載:0
  • 收藏收藏:0
每個散戶投資人都會有其獨特的投資行為與投資決策方式,而影響散戶投資人投資決策方式可拆分為不同的投資決策因素。本研究經過文獻探討並進行問卷預試後歸納出 5 大投資主要因素:總體經濟、投資者、產品、市場分析與風險因素。而主要投資因素底下分別有不同的次要因素共14 項。本研究透過層級分析法(Analytic Hierachy Process,AHP)針對以上提及之投資因素進行權重分析,檢視投資人認為何項因素較為重要,並且所占之比重為多少。
此外,投資人經過風險屬性評估後可分為保守、穩健與積極型投資人。本研究想藉由2020 年3 月股市大跌所引起之金融恐慌去檢視不同風險屬性之投資人是否有改變其投資選擇,同時也去檢視不同類型投資人之投資因素權重占比為何。經過分析後可發現整體投資人最重視之兩項主要因素為總體經濟因素與風險因素;最重要次要因素為全球經濟相互影響、系統性風險與非系統性風險排在全體投資人重視的投資次要因素前三名。此結果也符合在金融恐慌下的情境,畢竟新冠狀疫情是為系統性風險,並且也引發了後續一連串的非系統性風險,而由於新冠狀疫情發生於全球,因此全球經濟相互影響也會非常巨大。
Different retail investors will have their unique investment behaviors and decision strategies. It can be dissected into different investment factors when it comes to things affect retail investors’ investment decisions. After literature review and the pilot test of the survey, this research inducted 5 main investment factors which are Macroeconomic, Investor, Product, Market analysis and Risk factors. They can also be divided into subfactors and there are 14 subfactors in total under each main factors. This research applied AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) to analyze above investment factors and calculate weightings for different factors. To see which factor is more important and the percentage for each factor.
In addition, after risk attribute assessment, investors can be categorized into three different types: conservative, steady and active investors. This research inspects whether different types of investors had changed their investment choices, through the financial panic caused by the stock market crash in March 2020 and at the same time examine the weighting ratio of investment decisions for different types of investors. After the analysis it can be found that the two main factors the overall investors value the most are Macroeconomic and Risk factors. The top three most important subfactors are Global Economic Interrelationship, Systematic Risk and Nonsystematic Risk. This result corresponds to the circumstance of financial panic that was caused by COVID-19. After all, COVID-19 is a systematic risk and it continues triggering a series of nonsystematic risks incidents. COVID-19 is a global pandemic; therefore, it is reasonable that Global Economic Interrelationship will be huge.
摘要...I
ABSTRACT ... II
目錄... III
圖目錄...V
表目錄...VI
第一章、緒論 ...1
1.1 研究背景與動機...1
1.2 研究目的...2
1.3 論文架構...3
第二章、文獻回顧...4
2.1 投資的定義...4
2.2 風險的定義...5
2.2.1 風險態度與風險偏好...5
2.2.2 投資人之風險屬性...6
2.3 投資行為...7
2.4 AHP 相關之投資決策分析研究...9
第三章、研究方法...12
3.1 研究架構...12
3.2 層級分析法...13
3.2.1 AHP 之基本假設...14
3.2.2 層級分析法之層級與要素...14
3.2.3 AHP 之評估尺度...14
3.2.4 AHP 之數學邏輯...15
3.2.5 AHP 應用流程...17
3.3 散戶投資人之投資層級因素說明...18
3.3.1 總體經濟因素...19
3.3.2 投資者因素...19
3.3.3 產品因素...19
3.3.4 市場分析因素...20
3.3.5 風險因素...20
3.4 研究對象與範圍...21
3.5 問卷設計...21
第四章、資料分析...23
4.1 投資者樣本分析...23
4.2 投資風險屬性分析...24
4.2.1 投資風險屬性問卷第一部份分析...25
4.3 投資決策因素AHP 分析...36
4.3.1 次要因素權重比較....37
4.3.2 投資人之最重要投資因素比重...38
4.4 投資者風險屬性與投資因素比對排序...40
4.4.1 保守型投資人...40
4.4.2 穩健型投資人...42
4.4.3 積極型投資人...44
4.4.4 綜合比較三種風險屬性投資人...46
4.5 其他屬性與投資因素之關聯...47
4.5.1 不一致性指標...47
4.5.2 投資金融相關職業之投資人...50
4.5.3 投資績效改變之投資人...52
第五章、結論與建議...57
5.1 結論...57
5.2 後續研究建議...58
參考文獻...59
附錄-投資決策網路問卷...62
一、網路資料
Coronavirus data, (2020),
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Yanqi Xu、甯卉、 Rosa Lee, (2020), “數說大蕭條以來最嚴重的經濟危機,我們
的生活如何被改變?”,
https://theinitium.com/project/20200610-international-great-lockdown-covid19-
economic-impact/
Mr.Market, (2020), “什麼是恐懼與貪婪指數(Fear & Greed Index)?對股市有什麼
影響?如何查詢?”,
https://rich01.com/tag/%E6%81%90%E6%87%BC%E8%88%87%E8%B2%AA%E
5%A9%AA%E6%8C%87%E6%95%B8/
金融監督管理委員會, (2005),
https://law.banking.gov.tw/Chi/FLAW/FLAWDOC03.aspx?datatype=etype&cnt=14
&sdate=20060601&edate=20060631&eadmin=1&recordNo=3
二、中文文獻
胡勝益, (1998),“投資理財理論/策略/實務”,台中大事業文化事出版社。
周賓凰、池祥萱、周冠男與龔怡霖, (2002),“行為財務學:文獻回顧與展望”,《證券
市場發展季刊,第14 卷,pp.1–46。
王韻怡、池祥萱與周冠男, (2016), “行為財務學文獻回顧與展望:台灣市場之研
究”,《經濟論文叢刊》,第44 卷第1 期, pp.1-55。
曹耀鈞,(2001),“資料包絡分析(DEA)與分析層級程序(AHP)兩種模式於選股決策
之應用研究”,東吳大學-企業管理學系。
戴和勝,(2004),“應用層級分析法建構共同基金選取模型之研究”, 國立交通大學-
管理學院碩士在職專班國際經貿組。
黃志祥,(2007),“運用層級分析法探討股票投資決策因素”, 國立高雄應用科技大
學-工業工程與管理系碩士班。
林怡秀,(2009),“處於全球金融風暴環境中的投資者對金融商品選擇之決策分析-
AHP 分析方法之應用”, 國立臺北大學-企業管理學系。
李俊民,(2013), “以AHP 層級分析法作為支援共同基金投資決策模式之研究”, 輔
仁大學-資訊管理學系。
簡禎富,(2014), “決策分析與管理:紫式決策分析以全面提升決策品質”, 雙葉書
廊。
三、英文文獻
Hillson, D., and Webster, R. M. (2007), “Understanding and Managing Risk Attitude”,
pp.4-5.
Weber, E.U. (2010), “Risk attitude and preference”, Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews:
Cognitive Science, Vol. 1, 79–88.
Masters, R. (1989), “Study examines investors’ risk-taking propensities”, Journal of
Financial Planning, Vol. 2, No. 3, pp.151.
Kahneman, D., and Tversky, A. (1979), “Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision
under Risk”, Econometrica, Vol. 47, No. 2, pp.263-291.
Shefrin, H. (2002), “Beyond Greed and Fear: Understanding Behavior Finance and the
Psychology of Investment”, New York: Oxford University Press.
Frank, J. D. (1935), “Some Psychological Determinants of the Level of Aspiration”,
American Journal of Psychology, Vol. 47, No. 2, pp. 285–93.
Thaler, R. H., and Johnson, E. J. (1990), “Gambling With the House Money and Trying
to Break Even: The Effects of Prior Choice”, Management Science, Vol. 36,
pp.643–660.
Barberis, N., Shleifer, A., and Vishny, R. (1998), “A model of investor sentiment”,
Journal of financial economics, Vol. 49 No. 3, pp.307-343.
Baker, M., and Wurgler, J. (2007), “Investor Sentiment in the Stock Market”, Journal
of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 21, No. 2, pp.129-152.
Devenow, A., and Welch, I. (1996), “Rational herding in financial economics”,
European Economic Review, Vol. 40, No. 5, pp.603-615.
Bikhchandani, S., and Sharma, S. (2000), “Herd Behavior in Financial Markets”, IMF
Econ Rev, Vol. 47, pp.279–310.
Goodwin, P., and Wright, G. (2014), “Decision Analysis for Management Judgment”,
5th ed, John Wiley & Sons Inc.
Ando, A., and Modigliani, F. (1963), “The ‘Life Cycle’ Hypothesis of Saving:
Aggregate Implications and Tests.”, The American Economic Review, Vol. 53,
No. 1, pp. 55–84.
Anthony, A., and Joseph, A. I. (2017), “Influence of behavioural factors affecting
investment decision—An AHP analysis. Metamorphosis”, A Journal of
Management Research, Vol. 16, No. 2, pp.107–114.
Jang, J.Y., and Park, M.J. (2019), “A study on global investors’ criteria for investment
in the local currency bond markets using AHP methods: the case of the Republic
of Korea”, Risks, Vol. 7, No. 4, pp.1-20.
International Monetary Fund. (2020), “World Economic Outlook: The Great
Lockdown”, Washington, DC, April.
Gopinath, G. (2020), “The Great Lockdown: Worst Economic Downturn Since the
Great Depression”. https://blogs.imf.org/2020/04/14/the-great-lockdown-worsteconomic-
downturn-since-the-great-depression/.
Benguria, Felipe., and Taylor, A.M (2020), “After the Panic: Are Financial Crises
Demand or Supply Shocks? Evidence from International Trade.”, American
Economic Review: Insights, Vol. 2, No.4, pp.509-26.
Haroon, O., and Rizvi, S. A. R. (2020), “COVID-19: Media coverage and financial
markets behavior—A sectoral inquiry”, Journal of Behavioral and Experimental
Finance, Vol. 27, Doi:10.1016/j.jbef.2020.100343
 
 
 
 
第一頁 上一頁 下一頁 最後一頁 top
* *