本文以中國大陸的全國性商業銀行為例，研究了總體經濟不確定性、經濟政策 不確定性以及銀行家信心指數對商業銀行放款行為的影響。同時也觀察了銀行家信 心指數是否會減弱或增強不確定性對商業銀行放款的影響，以及不確定性和銀行家 信心對銀行放款的影響是否會因銀行本身規模大小不同或是銀行是否為國有銀行而 產生異質性。我們的實證結果表明，總體經濟不確定性和經濟政策不確定性增加會 導致商業銀行減少放款，而銀行家信心增加會促使商業銀行增加放款，同時銀行家 信心會抵消一部分不確定性對銀行放款的負向影響。此外，相比于小銀行/股份制銀 行，大銀行/國有銀行的放款受到經濟政策不確定性的負向作用較小，甚至會隨總體 經濟不確定性的提高而增加。並且大銀行或國有銀行的放款決策更容易受到銀行家 信心的影響。

This paper explores the impact of macroeconomic uncertainty, economic policy uncertainty and banker confidence on bank lending in the case of mainland China. Besides, it is also investigated that whether the impact of uncertainty would be influenced by banker confidence, and whether the effect mentioned above would be heterogeneous across banks by size or by the degree of nationalization. Our empirical results show that increasing macroeconomic uncertainty or increasing economic policy uncertainty would induce declining bank lending, which effect would be partial offset by banker confidence. At the same time, banker confidence positively affects bank credits. Moreover, compared to small or joint-equity commercial banks, large banks and state-owned banks are proved to be less sensitive to economic policy uncertainty but more sensitive to banker confidence. Furthermore, lending of large banks or state-owned banks are positively related to macroeconomic uncertainty.

目錄
第一章 緒論.............................................................................................................1
第二章 文獻綜述......................................................................................................4
第一節 總體經濟不確定性、銀行家信心與商業銀行放款決策......................................4 第二節 經濟政策不確定性與商業銀行放款決策..........................................................5 第三節 不確定性的衡量.............................................................................................6
第三章 研究設計.......................................................................................................8
第一節 樣本選擇及數據來源.....................................................................................8
第二節 不確定性于銀行家信心的衡量方法...............................................................10
第三節 理論分析與假設...........................................................................................15
第四節 模型設計及關鍵變數....................................................................................19
第四章 實證結果...................................................................................................24
第五章 結論........................................................................................................34
參考文獻............................................................................................................36

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