中國江蘇省正處於省碳排放權交易市場建設的準備階段。為了給江蘇省碳排放權交易市場的建設工作提供決策依據，本研究利用江蘇省工業企業的相關數據資料，通過成本極小化的排放權交易模型模擬結果，分析在六種分配方式下江蘇省二氧化碳排放權交易市場中企業的減排數量與排放權交易的狀況，以及排放權交易價格和社會總體的總減排成本。最後通過納入公平指數來量化各種初始排放權分配方式的公平性程度，以作為衡量公平性的依據。
本研究發現，在初始排放權發放總量設定為2017年二氧化碳排放量的80%時，排放權交易後的社會總減排成本為120.55億元，排放權交易價格為每噸二氧化碳100元。而在直接管制的情況下，社會整體的減排成本為2,427.11億元。社會總減排成本在進行排放權交易後降低了2,306.57億元。排放權交易市場中石油加工、煉焦及核燃料加工業是最主要的排放權供給行業，電力、熱力的生產和供應業則是最主要的排放權需求行業。
在排放權分配方式的公平程度方面，將初始排放權平均分配方法的公平指數最高，為0.731。其次是企業單位數、主營業收入和地方生產總值三種分配方式，三者公平指數均高於0.7。溯往法則方式下公平指數最低，僅為0.208。碳排放強度方式的公平指數略高於溯往法則方式，為0.242。

Jiangsu Province, China, is preparing for implementing a Carbon emissions trading system. In order to provide a proper decision-making basis for the construction of the system, this study used the relevant data of industrial enterprises in Jiangsu Province to investigate potential impacts of the permit regulation through a cost-minimization model. This paper analyzed the behavior of the industrial enterprises under six initial allocation rules of permit. Finally, the equity index is included to quantify the fairness of various initial emission allocation methods.
The simulation results indicate that the total abatement costs is about 12.06 billion yuan and the permit price is 100 yuan per ton when the total amount of initial emission permits is set at 80% of year 2017 emission levels. Under Command-and-control regulations, the total abatement costs is about 242.71 billion yuan. The total abatement costs is reduced by 230.66 billion yuan after emissions trading. In the emissions trading market, the Processing of Petroleum, Coking, Processing of Nuclear Fuel industry is the major supplier of permits, while the Production and Supply of Electricity and Heat industry is the major demander.
In terms of the equity of initial permits allocation, the equity index of the method of average distribution of initial emission permits is the highest, with a value of 0.731. Secondly, there are three distribution methods: the number of enterprise units, main operating income and local gross domestic product, all of which have the equity index numbers higher than 0.7. The index is the lowest in the method of grandfathering rule, which is only 0.208. The equity index of carbon intensity is slightly higher than that of grandfathering rule, which is 0.242.

摘要 i
Abstract ii
謝辭 iii
圖目錄 v
表目錄 v
第一章 緒論 1
第一節 研究動機與目的 1
第二節 章節安排及研究流程 3
第二章 研究背景 5
第一節 排放權交易體系概述 5
第二節 全球碳排放權交易體系發展狀況 11
第三章 文獻綜述 21
第一節 排放權交易 21
第二節 公平性評價研究 27
第四章 公平指數與經濟模型 29
第一節 公平指數 29
第二節 經濟模型 30
第五章 資料來源與運用 33
第六章 實證結果分析 41
第七章 結論與建議 53
第一節 結論 53
第二節 政策建議 54
第三節 研究限制與未來研究方向 55
參考文獻 57
第一節 中文部分 57
第二節 英文部分 58
第三節 網路資料 62

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