為了應變災害而做的疏散規劃在國際上早已被廣泛研究。在歷年的研究與實際執行中，車道反轉是有效提升道路流量以達成道路疏通的常見方法。開發演算法來規劃有車道反轉的疏散路徑不僅能更佳地解決車道反轉配置的問題，也可以幫助量化網路的疏散時間。本研究使用流量理論，在給定的單一來源及單一目的疏散情況下使用具有方向以及容量的流量圖來簡化路網，並將實際路網上的參數建立數學模型。以最小化疏散時間為目標，建立一個以車道反轉來增加疏散流量的網路流演算法。研究提出一種最大動態車道反轉流量演算法 (Modified Maximum Dynamic Contraflow, Modified-MDCF)，該演算法以旅行時間限制來尋找疏散路徑，並同時考量旅行時間以及道路容量兩者，優先採納疏散時間最少的路徑，使得疏散所需之路徑數減少。演算法並在大規模的疏散規劃問題中求得與商用最佳化軟體相同或非常接近的最小疏散時間解，並大幅降低計算時間。

Evacuation Planning is widely studied as a precaution of natural hazards. In the past research and actual implementation, contraflow (or lane reversal) is an effective way to increase the outbound road capacity by reversing the direction of inbound roads during evacuations. Developing an algorithm for evacuation path planning with contraflow can not only obtain better network configuration for evacuation but also quantify the evacuation time of the network.
This study applies graph and flow theory to simplify the road network by using a directed graph and arc with capacity and travel time. Given a single source and a single destination, this study establishes a mathematical model to formulate the actual road network evacuation planning problem using contraflow. To minimize the total evacuation time, a network flow algorithm called Modified Maximum Dynamic Contraflow (Modified-MDCF) is established. The algorithm considers both travel time and road capacity during its search and evaluation of evacuation paths. It tends to adopt the path which evacuates the demand with minimum evacuation time, thus reducing the number of paths required for evacuation. Modified-MDCF obtained the minimum evacuation time that is the same as or very close to the solution of commercial optimization software in the numerical experiments. It also reduces the computation time dramatically in the large-scale evacuation problem, compared to the optimization software.

摘要
目錄
表目錄
圖目錄
第1章 緒論 1
1.1研究背景 1
1.2研究目的 1
1.3研究流程 2
第2章 文獻回顧 4
2.1網絡流量模型 5
2.1.1 靜態流量模型 5
2.1.2 動態流量模型 5
2.1.3 車道反轉流量模型 6
2.2車道反轉 7
2.3小結 8
第3章 數學模型 9
3.1名詞定義 9
3.2模型假設 11
3.3問題敘述 11
3.4數學模型 14
第4章 Modified Maximum Dynamic Contraflow Algorithm 20
4.1 演算法求解流程與比較 20
4.2 求解流程範例 33
4.3小結 37
第5章 數值分析 38
5.1參數設定 38
5.2模型驗證 41
5.3預期疏散時間上限之敏感度分析 54
5.4小結 59
第6章 結論及未來研究 60
第7章 參考文獻 61

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