中國自從2013年開始，成立了北京、天津、上海、重慶、深圳、廣東、湖北、福建等八個地區碳排放市場。中央政府在2017年底還宣告了開始全國碳排放市場的建設，發電行業成為首個被納入試點的行業。碳排放權因其和能源市場緊密相連，不僅是應對全球氣候變遷和全球暖化的重要措施，也逐漸成為一個重要的金融產品。本論文分成三部分，探討中國碳排放市場。第一部分回顧和比較了地區市場之間的市場背景、覆蓋准入、碳權分配、定價準則、規章規定和存在的問題。以便於對中國碳排放市場有深入和全面的了解。第二部分為中國這個全球最大的碳排放者制定了一個全國的價格，第一來源和第二來源的數據被仔細的蒐集和考慮，並詳細的對比了兩個數據的差異性、優點和不足。實證證明，地區市場的碳價價算數平均是中國碳排放權全國價格的一個良好的代表。第三部分分析中國碳排放全國市場和地區市場的風險預期和共變異數預期，以及市場之間的風險傳遞。本文使用多元GARCH模型裡面的對角線BEKK模型，以及第一來源數據和第二來源數據，去計算預期風險矩陣。基於張嘉玲（2015）文章對風險傳遞的定義，本文進一步計算了中國碳排放市場之間的平均風險波動。實證發現，廣東和深圳、廣東和全國市場、深圳市場和全國市場存在顯著的風險傳遞效果。

Since 2013, eight regional China carbon emissions markets have been established, namely Beijing, Shanghai, Guangdong, Shenzhen, Tianjin, Chongqing, Hubei and Fujian. The Central Government announced a national carbon emissions market, with power generation as the first industry to be considered. Carbon permits have become one of the key measure to address climate change and global warming, as well as an important financial asset, as it closely related to energy sectors.To analyze China carbon emission, the thesisconsists of three parts. Part 1 review and compare the background, coverage standard, carbon allocation method,pricing policy, regulationsand remaining problems in different regions, which gets an exhaustive view of China regional markets. Part 2 is to establish national carbon emissions prices for the People’s Republic of China, which is one of the world’s largest producers of carbon emissions. Two sources of regional data for China’s carbon allowances are taken into consideration, which are based on primary and secondary data sources, and compares their relative strengths and weaknesses. For purposes of establishing a single indicative price for carbon emissions in China, the empirical results suggest that the Arithmetic Mean of the National Primary and Secondary prices leads to the optimal prices for carbon emissions in China. Part 3 is to analyze the conditional variance and co-variances of China regional and national markets, as well as the volatility spillover effects. We imply a multivariate GARCH model, namely diagonal BEKK model, to calculate the conditional covariance matrix, using both primary and secondary data. Furthermore, using the definition of Chang et al. (2015) we estimate and test for the partial volatility spillover effects for regional and national markets.Significant partial co-volatility spillover effects were found from Guangdong to Shenzhen, Shenzhen to National and Guangdong to National markets, and inverse.

Abstract I
Acknowledgement III
Chapter 1.Introduction 1
Chapter 2.Literature Review 6
Chapter 3.Pricing Carbon Emission for China 12
Chapter 4.Establishing National Carbon Emission Prices for China 34
Chapter 5.Modelling Conditional Covariances and Volatility Spillovers for National and Regional Carbon Markets in China 57
Chapter 6.Conclusion 68
Chapter 7. Appendix A: Tables 70
Chapter 8. Appendix B: Figures 100
Chapter 9. References 134
Chapter 10. Data Website References 138

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