本研究利用景氣循環拆解方程式方法找出了影響印尼和東協各國在亞洲金融風暴前後產出、消費、投資、資本存量以及勞動之主要成長機制和探討連動性之改變，研究發現產出和消費的主要成長機制，亦為影響產出和消費連動性的重要機制，其中產出的主要成長機制為總要素成長力，而消費的主要成長機制為總要素生產力和投資決策偏移量。但研究發現投資、資本存量和勞動之主要成長機制並不為改變投資、資本存量和勞動連動性之重要機制，投資和資本存量以總要素生產力和投資決策偏移量為主要成長機制，而勞動則是以勞動決策偏移量和投資決策偏移量為主要成長機制。

This study uses the Business Cycle Accounting methodology to find out the main mechanism affecting outputs, consumptions, investments, capital stocks, and labor inputs of Indonesia and ASEAN countries. Moreover, we discuss the comovement between Indonesia and ASEAN countries before and after the 1997-1998 Asian financial crisis. We find that the main growth mechanism of outputs (i.e. TFP) and the mechanisms of consumptions (i.e. TFP and capital wedges) are also important in affecting the comovement of outputs and consumptions between Indonesia and ASEAN countries. However, we find the main growth mechanisms that affect investments (i.e. TFP and capital wedges), capital stocks (i.e. TFP and capital wedges), and labor inputs (i.e. labor wedges and capital wedges) are not the most important factors affecting the comovement of investments, capital stocks, and labor inputs between Indonesia and ASEAN countries.

目錄
第一章 緒論 1
1.1 研究動機 1
1.2 研究方法 6
1.3 本文架構 6
第二章 文獻回顧探討 7
2.1 經濟整合相關之實證研究 7
2.2 經濟成長相關實證研究 9
2.3 連動性相關實證研究 10
第三章 研究方法 12
3.1 基準模型 12
3.1.1 家計單位 12
3.1.2 生產部門 14
3.1.3 市場均衡 14
3.2 「榫」 15
3.3 連動性 18
第四章 資料收集與應用 19
4.1 資料來源 19
4.2 參數選擇 20
4.3 假設條件 21
第五章 研究結果 22
5.1 實際經濟變數連動性 22
5.1.1 實際產出連動性 22
5.1.2 實際消費連動性 23
5.1.3 實際投資連動性 24
5.1.4 實際資本存量連動性 25
5.1.5 實際勞動連動性 26
5.2 景氣循環拆解方程式之「榫」 27
5.3 景氣循環拆解方程式之反事實模擬 28
5.3.1 產出模擬 29
5.3.2 消費模擬 29
5.3.3 投資模擬 30
5.3.4 資本存量模擬 31
5.3.5 勞動模擬 32
5.4 「榫」之連動性和反事實模擬連動性 34
5.4.1 模擬產出連動性 36
5.4.2 模擬消費連動性 38
5.4.3 模擬投資連動性 41
5.4.4 模擬資本存量連動性 43
5.4.5 模擬勞動連動性 45
5.5 討論 47
第六章 結論 53
附錄 55

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