本文透過新南向18個國家1991-2016年的動態追蹤資料，探討造成這些國家青年失業的成因。在研究方法方面，本文採用兩階段系統GMM方法進行估計。研究結果顯示，國內生產毛額、最低工資以及外國直接投資對青年失業率有顯著的影響，這表示勞動力市場的需求面對新南向18個國家的青年失業率具有重要的影響。除此之外，研究結果還表明，在所有的模型中，青年失業率的落後一期項的係數皆非常顯著為正。有鑑於此，我們採用一階自我迴歸模型(first-order autoregressive model, AR(1))進一步檢驗各國青年失業率的持續性程度，發現在汶萊以及南亞地區的國家，如印度與尼泊爾，其青年失業率的持續性程度非常高。因此，這些國家的政策制定者應該要採取適當的政策以提高青年勞工的就業能力，像是積極勞動市場政策和計畫，可以防止短期失業成為結構性失業。

This study investigates the determinants of youth unemployment rate in 18 NSP (New Southbound Policy) countries over the period of 1991-2016 by employing the dynamic panel data analysis. The estimation technique used is the two steps System Generalized Method of Moments (GMM). The empirical results show that gross domestic product, minimum wage, foreign direct investment have significant effects on youth unemployment rate. This implies that the demand side of labor market has an important influence on youth unemployment rate in 18 NSP countries. Furthermore, the results also indicate that the one period lagged variable of the youth unemployment rate's coefficients are positive and highly significant through all models. In view of this, we examines the degree of persistence of youth unemployment for each country by using a first-order autoregressive model. We find that the degree of persistence of youth unemployment is particularly high in Brunei Darussalam and South Asian countries, such as India and Nepal. Therefore, policy makers should implement appropriate policies to improve the employability of young workers, specifically active labor market policies can prevent short-term unemployment from becoming long-term structural unemployment.

目錄
第一章 緒論 1

第二章 文獻回顧 5

第三章 變數與資料 9

第一節 變數來源與定義 9

第二節 敘述統計分析 11

第四章 實證模型與研究方法 13

第五章 實證結果 16
一、新南向18個國家的估計結果 16
二、不包含澳洲與紐西蘭的估計結果 18
三、兩性青年失業率的估計結果 20
四、各國青年失業率的持續性估計結果 21

第六章 結論 23

參考文獻 25

一、中文部分 25

二、英文部分 25

圖目錄

圖1：2016年全球各地區青年失業率與成人失業率的比率 2

圖2：2016年新南向18國青年失業率與成人失業率 3

圖3：2016年新南向18國青年失業人口占總失業人口比率 3

圖4：2016年新南向18國青年失業率與兩性青年失業率 11
 
表目錄

表1：全球與亞洲地區的青年人口規模 30

表2：2016年至2018年全球各地區的青年失業率趨勢與預測 31

表3：變數統計摘要 (國家別資料，1991-2016) 32

表4-1：新南向18國之動態追蹤資料模型估計結果 33

表4-2：新南向18國之動態追蹤資料模型估計結果(加入貿易開放) 34

表4-3：新南向18國之動態追蹤資料模型估計結果(加入外國直接投資淨流入) 35

表4-4：新南向18國之動態追蹤資料模型估計結果 (加入經濟大衰退虛擬變數) 36

表5：不包含澳洲與紐西蘭之動態追蹤資料模型估計結果 37

表6：新南向18國之動態追蹤資料模型估計結果：男性青年失業率 38

表7：新南向18國之動態追蹤資料模型估計結果：女性青年失業率 39

表8：各國青年失業率的持續性估計：AR(1)係數 40

表9：變數定義與來源 41

附圖目錄

附圖1：澳洲歷年青年失業率趨勢圖 42

附圖2：紐西蘭歷年青年失業率趨勢圖 42

附圖3：印尼歷年青年失業率趨勢圖 43

附圖4：馬來西亞歷年青年失業率趨勢圖 43

附圖5：菲律賓歷年青年失業率趨勢圖 44

附圖6：新加坡歷年青年失業率趨勢圖 44

附圖7：泰國歷年青年失業率趨勢圖 45

附圖8：汶萊歷年青年失業率趨勢圖 45

附圖9：柬埔寨歷年青年失業率趨勢圖 46

附圖10：寮國歷年青年失業率趨勢圖 46

附圖11：緬甸歷年青年失業率趨勢圖 47

附圖12：越南歷年青年失業率趨勢圖 47

附圖13：孟加拉歷年青年失業率趨勢圖 48

附圖14：不丹歷年青年失業率趨勢圖 48

附圖15：印度歷年青年失業率趨勢圖 49

附圖16：尼泊爾歷年青年失業率趨勢圖 49

附圖17：巴基斯坦歷年青年失業率趨勢圖 50

附圖18：斯里蘭卡歷年青年失業率趨勢圖 50

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