隨著科技的進步與經濟的發展，對電的需求也逐漸變大。電力系統的穩定不但關乎人們的生活，也進而影響企業的生產製造與發展。不穩定的系統將可能致使企業蒙受損失。由此可見，供電議題對現今社會而言的重要性也越來越高。
台灣現在用以評估缺電的指標為「備用容量率」，雖然備用容量率的概念一定程度上解釋了電力系統的安全與穩定，然其定義僅針對確定性之數值做分析。在再生能源發展快速的時代，供需的不確定性都較往常為高，備用容量率已無法完全反應系統的可靠與穩定。同時，在新型態的電力系統，備用容量率的設定亦不斷遭受挑戰；因此，本研究參考國際間之作法，導入機率模型及蒙地卡羅模擬的方式估算期望缺電時數，再與備用容量率做換算，進行模擬和可靠度分析。
本研究運用電力系統資訊，考慮在不同的能源配比情境下，在可調度情況時如何進行調度會使期望缺電時數最小、系統損失降到最低。相較以往「備用容量率」此評估缺電指標，本研究運用機率和統計的方式更能考量供電風險及不確定性因子，期望透過這樣的方式，不但更能反映風險，也可以提供能源調度上的參考及分析電力系統可靠度，進而輔助管理者進行決策。

The significance of power supply issue becomes greater to modern society. The reliability of electricity system not only affects our life, but also has great influence on the manufacturing process flow and development of company. In Taiwan, when it comes to the indicator of evaluating power outage, there is only “Percent Reserve Margin” as our main indicator. However, it was a controversial indicator with respect to estimating power outage in the past. As a result, we followed international power company’s method, applying probability method and Monte Carlo simulation method to estimate loss of load expectation which is an indicator for evaluating power outage in general. An empirical study is conducted in this paper to show the performance of the proposed method is promising and our methodology is useful in risk control under several circumstances. We can not only find out the best energy allocation for national power system but also provide a good indicator for decision makers via proposed method.

致謝 I
摘要 II
Abstract III
圖目錄 VI
表目錄 VII
第一章　緒論 1
1.1研究背景與動機 1
1.2研究目的 2
1.3論文架構 3
第二章　文獻回顧 5
2.1電力系統可靠度指標分析 5
2.1.1 各國可靠度指標探討 5
2.1.2 可靠度指標之整理與探討 6
2.2影響電力系統之隨機因子探討 8
2.2.1 再生能源發電的不確定性 8
2.2.2停機事件 9
2.3衡量電力系統可靠度方法探討 10
第三章　問題定義 13
第四章　研究方法 15
4.1資料分析 16
4.1.1能源歷史資料分析 16
4.1.2 結合TIMES模型與其差異說明 18
4.1.3資料配適 20
4.2 模擬模型建構 22
4.2.1符號定義 22
4.2.2電力需求端之模擬架構 23
4.2.3電力供給端之模擬架構 24
4.2.4 考量跳電機率下輸入參數說明 27
4.2.5 考量跳電機率下電力供給端之模擬架構 28
4.2.6 考量調度下輸入參數說明 29
4.2.7 考量調度下電力供給端之模擬架構 30
第五章　情境設計與分析 32
5.1 情境背景介紹 32
5.2 結果與討論 35
第六章　決策支援系統 40
6.1 系統介紹 42
6.1.1 資料輸入與參數設定 43
6.1.2 系統結果輸出 47
6.2 簡易操作說明 47
6.2.1使用者輸入參數部分 48
6.2.2系統輸出說明 50
第七章　結論與未來研究 52
參考文獻 54
附錄 57

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