本篇研究目的是在探討何種因素會影響大聯盟(MLB)的進場人數。尤其我們主要在了解對戰組合、不確定性以及幸運因素如何影響大聯盟進場人數。本篇文章蒐集了1986年至2016年的大聯盟30隊的資料，並利用對戰的場數為權數製造出關於客場球隊的自變數，這會反映出對戰組合在決定進場人數時所扮演的角色為何。此外，本篇研究也納入了不同型態的變數，例如，我們使用打進場內形成安打的機率(BABIP)創造出運氣的解釋變數。我們從實證結果發現，雖然對戰組合沒有顯著性，但是從正負號的結果暗示了進場觀眾比較喜歡看到主場球隊打敗客場球隊。另外，不確定性的解釋變數反映了進場觀眾比較偏好看到主場球隊取得勝利，換言之，進場觀眾偏好的是確定性而非不確定性，而且運氣成分的實證結果是負的且有顯著性，因此我們可以推論進場觀眾不僅喜歡看到主場球隊的勝利，而且也希望勝利的原因不是因為幸運。

This paper attempts to investigate the factors that affect the attendance in Major League Baseball (MLB). In particular, we focus on how rivalry series, uncertainty and luck factor influence the attendance. This study considers 30 MLB teams in the period from 1986 to 2016, and adopts the number of games as weight to create the independent variables of visiting teams. This would reflect how the rivalry series play a role determining the attendance. Furthermore, the present study also incorporates various types of measures. Moreover, we utilize the advanced data, BABIP, to establish the luck factor. Our empirical results show that although rivalry series is not significant, the sign implies attendance may like to see home team beats the visiting team. Additionally, the factors about uncertainty reflect that attendance prefers the home team to winning the game and the luck effect is negative and significant on attendance. In other words, the conclusion indicates the attendance prefers certainty not uncertainty. Therefore, this also explains the attendance likes to see home team wins the game but the victory is not due to luck factor.

1 Introduction....................................................1
2 Literature review...............................................2
2.1 Ex ante observation and ex post observation.................2
2.2 Competitive balance and policy regulations..................3
3 Data and variables..............................................4
3.1 Definition of variables.....................................4
3.2 Descriptive statistics......................................7
4 Selected variables and econometric method.......................8
4.1 Collinearity................................................8
4.2 Variable selection..........................................9
4.3 Panel data..................................................10
5 Empirical results...............................................12
5.1 Factors affecting attendance................................12
5.2 Importance of rivalry series, uncertainty and luck factor...13
6 Conclusion......................................................14

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