近年來，服務導向架構愈來愈受到重視。可靠度對於評量一個系統的品質是一項重要的依據，而錯誤傳遞這個現象可能對系統可靠度造成可觀的影響，傳遞的錯誤可能在傳遞路徑上被修正，或是一路傳遞至系統介面，進而造成系統失效。目前已經有許多關於服務導向架構系統的可靠度評估的研究，然而大部分的研究都忽略了錯誤傳遞的現象。在這篇論文中，我們將錯誤傳遞的現象以及服務之間連結的錯誤行為納入考量，為服務導向架構系統建立一個可靠度預測模型，其中我們解除了系統運行中跳出錯誤的限制。另外，我們也考量如何用更有效的方式來改善系統可靠度。因此，我們將四種容錯機制運用在我們所採用的系統中，包含RcB、NVP、NSCP，及CRB。另外，我們也運用了兩種敏感度分析方法來幫助我們找出系統中最重要的服務。我們的實驗採用三個實際的服務導向系統，實驗結果顯示錯誤傳遞的確會對系統可靠度造成重要的影響，而採用了容錯機制的系統相對於未採用者能得到更好的系統可靠度。整體而言，我們提出的方法可以幫助專案經理及開發人員去分析考量了錯誤傳遞現象及容錯機制的服務導向系統的可靠度，並找出系統中敏感的服務，以更有效率地改善服務導向系統。

Service oriented architecture (SOA) has become more and more popular during recent years. For evaluating the quality of a developed system, reliability is a critical attribute. The phenomenon of error propagation could have significant impacts on the system reliability. The propagated errors might be masked or may propagate up to the system interface, and thereby can lead to system failure. A lot of research about reliability evaluation for SOA systems have been proposed in the past. However, most of these studies neglect the phenomenon of error propagation. In this study, we take the error propagation and the failure behavior of links between services into account to develop a useful reliability prediction model for SOA systems, and the condition of stopping-failure is also relaxed. In addition, we also study how to improve the system reliability in a more efficient and effective way. Therefore, four kinds of fault tolerance (FT) mechanisms, namely RcB, NVP, NSCP, and CRB, are adopted to the SOA systems. Additionally, two sensitivity analysis techniques are conducted to determine the critical services. Sensitivity analysis helps find the most important services in the adopted systems. Experiments are performed based on three real-world cases, and experimental results show that the impact of error propagation on system reliability is significant, and the enhanced SOA systems with fault tolerance are with higher reliability than those that do not consider fault-tolerance design. In summary, our proposed approach could help project managers and/or developers analyze the reliability of those SOA systems that consider error propagation, as well as fault tolerance and also identify sensitive services to improve SOA systems more efficiently.

Abstract in Chinese I
Abstract II
Contents IV
List of Tables VI
List of Figures VII
Table of Notation IX
Chapter 1 Introduction 1
Chapter 2 Background and Related Works 5
2.1 SOA System Reliability Analysis 5
2.2 Error Propagation Concept 6
2.3 Software Fault Tolerance 9
Chapter 3 SOA System Reliability Modeling 13
3.1 Framework of the Proposed Model 13
3.2 EP-FT Reliability Model 17
Chapter 4 Sensitivity Analysis for the Proposed Model 23
4.1 One-factor-at-a-time (OFAT) Method 23
4.1.1 Initial Service Failure Probability 24
4.1.2 Error Propagation Probability 25
4.1.3 Sensitivity Analysis for FT Services 26
4.2 Design of Experiments (DOE) 28
Chapter 5 Experiments and Discussion 29
5.1 Experiment 1: Order-to-provisioning System 29
5.2 Experiment 2: Travel Agency System 33
5.3 Experiment 3: Book Lending System 37
5.4 Modeling vs. Simulation Results 41
5.5 Sensitivity Analysis - One-factor-at-a-time Method 44
5.6 Sensitivity Analysis - Design of Experiments 58
5.7 Threats to Validity 64
Chapter 6 Conclusions 66
References 68
Appendix A 74
A.1 Sequence Structure 74
A.2 Branch Structure 74
A.3 Loop Structure 76
Appendix B 77
B.1 Sensitivity Analysis of p(i) 77
B.2 Sensitivity Analysis of ep(i,j) 78
Appendix C 80
C.1 Recovery Block 80
C.2 N-version Programming 81
C.3 N Self-checking Programming 82
C.4 Consensus Recovery Block 84
Appendix D 87
D.1 Scenario-Base 87
D.2 Scenario-RcB 88
D.3 Scenario-NVP 89
D.4 Scenario-NSCP 90
D.5 Scenario-CRB 91

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