國內近年來房市受到經濟成長疲軟,房地合一稅實施,以及交易量下降之影響, 房屋價格呈現放緩下跌走勢,另一方面為解決此情況,國內房地產陸續推出相關 政策,包括房屋稅稅基往下調整、修正都市更新條例、加速都市危險及老舊建築 物重建等,皆可能對房地產市場回溫產生正向的幫助。放眼於國際,當前全球正 與經濟政策存在變數,例如:英國脫歐、美國聯準會升息、地緣政治風險造成資本 市場不穩定;即使國內市場普遍預期下半年經濟成長率將優於去年,但國際經濟 情勢變化及全球資金行情變動,仍會影響著國內房市變化。 由此可見,房地產本身具有不齊一性,也受到總體經濟的影響,故分析房地產價 格時若能夠排出房地產本身的條件差異,我們就能去分析各別總體經濟變數對房 屋價格的影響。許多文獻指出,房屋價格與總體經濟變數的關聯性強,因此,本 研究以台北市、新北市、台中市、台南市、高雄市的房價資料進行實證,期間自 西元二零一二年至西元二零一六年共四年的資料作為樣本內資料,採取西元二零 一七年一到四月的資料作為樣本外資料。主要目的是從總體經濟面來找出影響房 地產價格變動的因素,讓民眾以及政府能夠提前掌握資訊,以助決策分析之參考。 進一步預測房地產價格,期望找出能預測合理房價的模型。

In recent years, domestic housing prices have slowed down due to the weak economic growth, the implementation of real estate tax, as well as the impact of the decline in trading volume of houses. However, to solve this situation, the domestic real estate authorities launched a related policy, including housing tax base downward adjustment, to amend the urban renewal regulations and to accelerate the reconstruction of urban old buildings, etc. It is said the policies are likely to help the real estate market to recover. Take the whole world in view, there are many factors to affect the world economy. For example, the Withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the European Union, the Fed’s rate-raising campaign, geopolitical risk. If the economic growth rate is generally expected to be better than last year in the next half year, but it changes as the international economic situation and global financial markets change. Those are the factors which will still affect the domestic housing market. It can be seen that the real estate itself is not uniform, but also impacted by the macroeconomic variables, so when we analyze the real estate prices, if we can discharge the difference of real estate conditions themselves , then we can analyze the scale of each the macroeconomic variable on the impact of housing prices.
Many literatures pointed out that the relationship between housing prices and the macroeconomic variables is strong. Therefore, this study is based on the housing price data of Taipei City, Xinbei City, Taichung City, Tainan City and Kaohsiung City. During the period from 2012 AD to 2016 AD, the data were used as in-samples, and take the information from January to April in the year of 2017 as out-sample data. The main purpose of this thesis is to find out the factors that affect the real estate price changes from the macroeconomic side, so that the people and the government can grasp the information in advance to help making decisions. Further, we forecast real estate prices and expect to find a model to predict reasonable future prices.

目錄
摘要.................................................................................................................................I 第一章 緒論..................................................................................................................5
第一節 研究動機與目的......................................................................................5
第二節 研究範圍與研究方法..............................................................................8 第二章 文獻回顧..........................................................................................................9 第一節 樣本配對方法..........................................................................................9
第二節 總體經濟變數..........................................................................................9 第三章 研究方法與變數選取....................................................................................11 第一節 研究方法................................................................................................11
第二節 變數選取................................................................................................18 第四章 實證結果與分析............................................................................................21 第一節 ADF 單根檢定.......................................................................................21
第二節 自我迴歸模型........................................................................................22 第三節 樣本外預測結果....................................................................................28
第五章 結論與建議....................................................................................................31 參考文獻...................................................................................................................... 32

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