台灣在半導體從晶圓製造、IC封裝產值皆已居於全球第一位。而目前台灣的IC載板產業的產值，已超越日本位居全球第一。對處於需求高度變動的產業中，接單式生產為其生產特色，需在接到客戶訂單後，快速回復交期、安排生產。且封裝廠通常有多個IC載板廠可供給，其訂單爭取關鍵除了品質、成本以外，最重要的是如何提供有彈性的產能供給，快速回應顧客需求。所以在訂單的計畫、允諾、管理與執行對台灣的代工產業型態而言更是重要。
個案公司在產能計畫上，產能分配未考量中期計畫的客戶承諾、客戶重要度與利潤，在需求大於供給時，僅以預測等比下修產能分配，造成重要客戶極大抱怨；且以往訂單允諾僅考量各產品的預留產能沖銷，造成訂單晚到客戶交期太長而喪失訂單，也是需要進行優化之處。最後，因業務預測準確度低，常因部分訂單超過產能分配導致無法允諾交期，但同時又有部分訂單應到未到而導致產能閒置，此狀況對營運上造成很大問題。
故本研究主要針對IC載板廠產能分配與訂單沖銷分析，首先以分析產能分配需要考量的因素，建立線性規劃模型進行最佳化；另外考量各客戶各產品的產能分配進行預留產能沖銷允諾，降低部分客戶訂單晚到導致交期過長問題。最後針對訂單應到未到提前檢討，進行產能分配釋出，將釋出產能分配用以因應訂單超過產能分配之訂單，進而提升工廠的營運成效，故將本研究的研究成果與貢獻歸納如下：
 分析IC載板產業的需求與供給面特性，定義出該產業產能規劃、分配與預留產能沖銷的問題。
 建立滾動式產能分配、沖銷最佳化的產銷循環，解決訂單準備階段(產能規劃與分配)、訂單處理階段(產能分配後的沖銷問題、需求<產能分配的產能損失問題、需求>產能無法允諾的問題、預測缺乏重視與管理)所遭遇之問題，提出最佳化的方法使其獲得解決。

The manufacturing value from wafer manufacturing and IC packaging in Taiwan has ranked number one in the worldwide semiconductor industry. At present, the output value of Taiwan's IC substrate has surpassed the output value in Japan and ranking number one in the world. For industries in which demand is highly variable, order-based production is its production feature. After receiving customer orders, it is necessary to have prompt delivery response and production planning. In addition, the Assembly companies usually have multiple substrate suppliers to support the demand. The key to approach orders is not only on the quality and cost, but the most important thing is how to provide flexible production capacity supply and quickly respond for customer requirements. Therefore, the planning, promise, management and execution of orders are even more important for Taiwan's foundry industry.

The case company's capacity allocation, capacity allocation does not consider the customer commitment, customer importance and profit of the mid-term plan. When demand is greater than supply, it only downgrade the capacity allocation based by certain ratio, causing major customers to complain greatly; and in the past The order promise only considers the write-off of the reserved capacity of each product, which causes the order to be too late and the customer's delivery time is too long and the order is lost. Finally, due to the low accuracy of business forecasting, it is often impossible to promise delivery due to some orders exceeding the capacity allocation, but at the same time, some orders should not arrive and lead to idle capacity. This situation caused serious problems in company.

Therefore, this research is mainly aimed at the analysis of capacity allocation and order reversal of IC carrier factories. First, the factors that need to be considered in analyzing the capacity allocation are used to establish a model for optimization; in addition, the capacity allocation of each customer and product is considered to reserve the capacity write-off commitment and decrease the long delivery times issue due to delayed order by part of customers. Finally, for the order should be reviewed in advance, the capacity allocation will be released, and the capacity allocation will be released to respond to the order that the order exceeds the capacity allocation, thereby, it will improve the factory's operational effectiveness . The research results and contributions of this study are summarized as follows:



 Analyze the demand and supply characteristics of the IC substrate industry, and define the industry's capacity planning, allocation and reserve capacity offset.
 Establish a production and sales cycle of rolling capacity allocation and offsetting optimization to solve the order preparation stage (capacity planning and allocation), order processing stage (offset problem after capacity allocation, demand <capacity loss problem of capacity allocation, demand> capacity failure Promise problems, forecast lack of attention and management) Key words encountered: IC substrate, capacity allocation, order write-off

目錄
第一章 緒論 1
1.1 研究背景與動機 1
1.2 研究目的 3
1.3 研究範圍與限制 3
1.4 研究步驟 3
第二章 文獻回顧 5
2.1 產能規劃 5
2.1.1 產能規劃之重要性 5
2.1.2 產能規劃層級與目的 6
2.1.3 產能規劃方法 7
2.1.4 需求大於產能分配策略 8
2.2 訂單滿足 11
2.2.1 訂單滿足流程 11
2.2.2 可允諾量定義 13
2.2.3 可允諾量分類 16
2.2.4 預先配置可允諾量 17
第三章 IC載板廠訂單允諾系統 19
3.1 IC載板產業之環境與特性分析 19
3.1.1 IC載板產業之環境分析 19
3.1.2 IC載板產業之特性分析 21
3.2 現行IC載板廠的產能規劃 25
3.2.1 現行IC載板廠產能規劃作法 26
3.2.2 現行IC載板廠產能規劃層級 26
3.2.3 現行IC載板廠產能擴充方法 27
3.2.1 現行IC載板廠產能規劃流程 28
3.3 現行IC載板廠訂單允諾流程分析 30
3.3.1 現行IC載板廠產能分配權責與考慮因素 30
3.3.2 現行IC載板廠產能規劃、分配與沖銷步驟 32
3.3.3 現行IC載板廠產能規劃、分配與沖銷範例 34
3.3.4 現行IC載板廠訂單允諾系統問題定義 39
3.4 滾動式產能分配、沖銷最佳化的產銷循環 41
3.4.1 產能規劃與分配數學模型 41
3.4.2 優化預留產能沖銷機制 44
3.4.3 需求大於/小於產能分配的置換機制 45
3.4.4 預留產能未沖銷檢討與懲罰機制 51
第四章 IC載板廠個案探討與分析 54
4.1 個案背景與情境說明 54
4.1.1 個案描述 54
4.1.2 個案情境 56
4.2 個案公司滾動式產能分配、沖銷最佳化的產銷循環 59
4.2.1 Plan最佳化產能規劃與分配 59
4.2.2 Do 優化預留產能沖銷 62
4.2.3 Check & Action 需求大於/小於產能分配的處理 63
4.2.4 Feedback & Review 分配未沖銷檢討與懲罰 65
4.3 敏感度分析 66
第五章 結論與建議 69
5.1 結論 69
5.2 建議 70
參考文獻 72

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